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September 01, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Central Banks Dominate The Economics Calendar This Week

As we roll into a new month traders will be once again closely monitoring central bank action with the RBA, the ECB, the BoE, the BoJ and the Bank of Canada on the schedule this week. The stellar event with be Mr. Draghi and the ECB, but events unfolding in Russia might overshadow the central bank or force the hand of Mr. Draghi. This will be followed by a slew of Federal Reserve speakers leading up to the release of...
August 31, 2014| Cliff Wachtel

Global Stocks Weekly Fundamental Outlook: Top Market Drivers, Lessons, Questions

Weekly fundamental outlook for global stock indexes and most global asset markets. See here for our Global Stocks Weekly Technical Outlook.   Fundamental Picture: Lessons & Top Market Drivers For This Week   Everything that has real influence over global asset prices and rates these days falls into one of three categories: Economic data from the US, Europe, or China (ok, occasionally Japan or the UK). Speculation about changes in policy, and ultimately, benchmark interest rates, from one of their...
August 24, 2014| Cliff Wachtel

The Coming Week’s Top Market Movers, Lessons: EU’s Moment Of Truth Approaching?

Top market movers and lessons for the prior and coming week and beyond – special focus on existential decisions EU must soon face   Summary --Technical Outlook: European indexes diverge from those of US, Asia, reflecting Europe’s underperformance --Fundamental Outlook: They key drivers continue to dominate, Ukraine and weekly data playing secondary role as markets rally despite Ukraine and mixed data --Longer Term Fundamental Threats: EU existential threats demand existential decisions   The following is a partial summary of the...
August 24, 2014| Cliff Wachtel

The EU: The End Is Near? Existential Threats And Decisions Approach

As evidence of the EU’s failure and potential collapse mounts, the time for existential choices approaches, implications for the EUR     Summary Existential Threat #1: Unsustainable Debt Loads That Could Destroy The EU Require A Fully Empowered ECB Existential Threat #2: Undercapitalized Banks Present Systemic Risk To EU, Global Banking. This too requires a fully empowered central bank that can act fast with needed cash Implications: A US of Europe, but apparent lack of political will and popular support...
August 20, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The US Dollar Beats Up On The Pound & Euro

Wall Street turned in another strong performance during trading on Tuesday, extending the upward trend seen over the past several sessions. The continued strength on Markets came following the release of two closely watched reports on consumer price inflation and new residential construction. European markets ended positive on Tuesday amid easing concerns about Ukraine and hopes the Bank of England will hold off on a widely-anticipated rate hike due to lower U.K. inflation in July. This morning Asian markets are...
August 18, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

UK & Eurozone Economic Recovery Diverging

Most currencies ended mixed against the US dollar after European and US sessions on Friday. The euro rose from lows near $1.3360 to around $1.3410, before ending US trade near $1.3395. This morning the euro eased by another 4 points to trade at $1.3398. The Australian dollar eased from highs near 0.9350 to trade at 0.9320 flat on Monday morning. And the Japanese yen rose from 102.70 yen per US dollar to 102.15, ending US trade near 102.34. The yen is...
August 15, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The US Dollar Maintains Its Strength

The US dollar index gained 3 points to trade at 81.66 this morning recovering some of Thursday’s decline on weak unemployment data. The dollar weakened broadly on Thursday, falling after three straight days of gains, on yet another piece of data suggesting a bumpy recovery for the U.S. economy. An increase in the weekly U.S. jobless claims came a day after an unexpectedly flat retail sales report, which reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to raise...
August 05, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Currency Traders Holding Tight With Central Bank Influences This Week

The US dollar continued to hold water trading at 81.41 up just 1 point this morning. May woe sayers are arguing that the US dollar is about to fall, except with the world geopolitical situation, Japanese lackluster data and ECB indecision, the US dollar should remain strong against most of its crosses. The pound just days ago was trading over the 1.70 mark has fallen to 1.6864 even though it rallied on Monday after UK construction PMI improved greatly. Traders...
July 25, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Currency Traders Busy On Steady Flow Of Data

Friday morning is light on data with nothing due in Australia or New Zealand. Japan released inflation numbers this morning.  The Japanese yen was little changed against the dollar on the news, staying around 101.75 after hitting a one-week high of 101.82. Japan raised its sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent in April, in a bid to reduce its hefty debt pile, which is one of the highest among the world's industrialized countries. Adjusting for the sales tax effect...
July 11, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Portugal Banking Problems Soar Sending Traders For Safety

Wall Street regained some ground over the course of the session after showing a substantial move to the downside at the start of trading on Thursday. The initial sell-off on Wall Street was partly due to renewed concerns about the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rate sooner than anticipated also weighed on the markets following the release of upbeat jobs data. Meanwhile European stocks ended the lower as Portugal's banking woes threatened to dent the European financial system...
June 30, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Forex Traders Wind Down The Month

Traders saw a good deal of data in the Asian session including Japanese Industrial Production which missed its target along with a drop in New Zealand business confidence. Asian markets are trading on a positive note today on the back of an improvement over last month for industrial production data from Japanese economy along with speculation that violence in Iraq will not curb the output of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The US dollar continues to be a drag...
June 25, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Global Speculators Are Looking For Direction

Today in the Asian session most of the equity markets are down by an average of 0.5% following the negative close of the US equity markets. S&P 500 closed at a level of 1949.98 down by 0.64% from the previous day’s close. Most of the equity markets are seeing a minor correction after the gains they have been posting over the last few days. European shares closed mixed yesterday, struggling after the release of worse-than-expected data for Germany. U.S. stocks...
June 24, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Global Markets Just About Flat

Asian exchanges are trading on a mixed note this morning on the back of positive economic data from the US in yesterday’s trade supported an upside in the markets. While on the other hand, decline in energy and technology stocks and tensions in Iraq exerted downside pressure on the markets. European shares closed down on Monday, as euro zone data disappointed and turmoil in Iraq continued. U.S. stocks ended little changed on Monday, with the Dow Jones halting its longest...
June 16, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Comments (1)

Busy Week For Traders Ahead Of The FOMC

The US dollar continued to ease but remains well above its trading range for the month and the year after touching 80.80 the greenback is trading at 80.69 as traders are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow. Currency speculators are also closely monitoring the outbreak of violence and the possibility of a civil war in Iraq. The dollar edged down against a basket of currencies in early trade on Monday, drawing mild support as geopolitical...
June 11, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The AUD & NZD Climb On Positive Sentiment & ECB Stimulus

The Great British Pound is trading at 1.6756 in the red as the US dollar gained in early trading. Britain’s strengthening recovery has probably pushed the economy back above its pre-crisis level, ending the longest period of below-peak output in a century. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent in the three months through May. That puts it about 0.2 percent above where it was in January 2008. Sterling hit an 18-month...
June 08, 2014| Cliff Wachtel

The ECB Stimulus Package: What Every Investor Must Know For Protection And Profit

A Summary of the key elements, lessons, ramifications of 2014’s biggest market event yet, how to profit plus our “name the coming ECB QE” contest (QEU? QEEU? QEGA? QEER) The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we share thoughts about key developments worth a special report, this one on the ECB’s new stimulus package, coming full QE, and related lessons, ramification, guidelines on how to protect yourself and profit.  Those seeking more...
June 08, 2014| Cliff Wachtel

ECB Stimulus Package: What Every Investor Must Know For Protection And Profit Full Report

Key details, lessons, ramifications about 2014’s biggest market event yet, plus out “name the coming ECB QE” contest (QECB? QEU? QEEZ? QEEU? QEGA?) The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we share thoughts about key developments worth a special report, this one on the ECB’s new stimulus package, coming full QE, and related lessons, ramification, guidelines on how to protect yourself and profit. It’s the full length version.  Those seeking a shorter...
June 03, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

What Do You Think Mr. Draghi & The ECB Will Do On Thursday?

German CPI data printed lower than expected on Monday assuring markets that the ECB would be forced to add some variation of stimulus to help the eurozone avoid deflation and recession. Earlier in the day Eurozone and individual PMI’s missed expectations. Europe’s manufacturing PMIs were almost universally disappointing. The euro area reading came in at 52.2, down from the flash 52.5 estimate. Germany itself was revised to 52.3 from 52.9. Italy slipped to 53.2 from 54.0. The consensus was for...
May 30, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The US Dollar Ignores Lackluster GDP Numbers

The US dollar continued to trade on a strong note at 80.50 this morning after reaching a recent high near the 80.70 range as the US economy chugs along. Investors generally dismissed revised data that showed the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, given that more recent data has suggested a recovery following a severe winter. The weakness was more than accounted for by a marked decline in inventory investment, especially by...
May 29, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The US Dollar King Of The Currency Markets

The U.S. market witnessed a choppy session on Wednesday and ended in negative territory ending their four-day winning streak. The modestly lower close came on the heels of the recent upward trend by the markets. Also, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields plummeted to their lowest closing level since last summer on Wednesday. Traders seemed reluctant to make any significant moves for much of the session ahead of the major economic data like weekly jobless claims, pending home sales and revised...
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