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January 30, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Euro Weakens as German Inflation Turns Negative

The EUR/USD traded sideways-to-lower on Friday after Germany reported that inflation turned negative in January for the first time since September 2009. Its economy fell 0.5 percent from a year earlier. Economists had called for a decline of 0.2 percent. Traders and economists are looking for inflation to continue to drift lower until at least June when the European Central Bank’s massive 1.1 trillion Euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus package may start to show results. In other news affecting the Euro...
January 29, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Euro, Gold Continue to Weaken after Fed Policy Announcement

Commodity and foreign currency markets continued to react to yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy announcement. Late Wednesday, the Fed maintained its pledge to be “patient” on raising interest rates. Fed members noted global risks, saying they will monitor “international developments” when deciding how long to keep rates low. It also raised its view of the economy and labor market, but expressed concerns about low inflation, saying it even anticipates inflation to fall further in the near term. Today...
January 28, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Euro, Gold Markets Quiet Ahead of Fed Announcement

Most commodity and foreign currency markets are trading flat ahead of today’s release of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET.   The Fed is expected to signal it remains on track to begin raising interest rates later this year. The central bank is likely to tell investors that it remains “patient” as it concerns itself with low domestic inflation and rising risks from Europe and China. Because of the bad durable goods report, some...
January 27, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

U.S. Dollar Drops on Weak Durable Goods Report

A sharp drop in orders for U.S. durable goods in December is helping to drive down the U.S. Dollar today, lending support to a stronger Euro and British Pound. The drop in the Greenback is also helping to drive up dollar-denominated gold and crude oil. Orders for durable goods fell 3.4 percent in December, following a 2.1 percent decline in November. According to the Commerce Department, a 55.5 percent plunge in commercial aircraft was responsible for the bulk of the...
January 27, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Currency Markets Rebalancing After Market Surprises

With the ECB and the BoC behind traders are now focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The US dollar remains near a record high above the 95 level, printing at 95.21 this morning in the Asian session after testing the 95.45 level after the ECB announcement last Thursday.  Markets are also expecting to hear from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The tone of the Reserve Bank later in the week is going to be a little bit...
January 26, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Oversold Conditions Trigger EUR/USD Rebound Rally

The EUR/USD retreated early in the session after the anti-austerity Syriza party emerged victorious in the Greek snap elections. Driving the market lower were comments by Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras who promised that five years of austerity, “humiliation and suffering” imposed by international creditors were over after his Syriza party swept to victory in a snap election on Sunday. Some traders believe that a successful campaign by Greece to obtain debt relief could lead to similar challenges in Spain...
January 23, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Crude Oil Trades Sideways on Mixed Fundamentals

March Crude Oil futures continued to trade flat to slightly better on Friday as it consolidated inside its eight day range of $44.78 to $51.73. The fundamentals were mixed these week, leading to the sideways trade. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that hedge and commodity funds had increased net-long positions by 12 percent the week-ended January 13. This was the largest increase since March 2011. While it may not have been enough to...
January 22, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

EUR/USD Steady after ECB Reveals Details of Stimulus Plan

The EUR/USD traded higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank revealed its plans to stimulate the fragile economy and boost inflation. ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank in March will begin buying 60 billion Euros ($69.8 billion) a month in Euro Zone sovereign debt through 2016. By increasing the central bank’s balance sheet, Draghi and the monetary policy committee hopes to push inflation back up towards 2%. The GBP/USD posted a modest gain on Thursday. This is...
January 22, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Forex Markets On A Roller Coaster On Central Bank Decisions

The big day has arrived as European Central Bankers and EU representative began final behind the door negotiations on the stimulus package to be unveiled by the bank today. Meanwhile markets have been distracted by unexpected events around the globe. Just a week ago the Swiss National Bank shocked the markets by removing their floor on the EURCHF to allow the currency to free float after a 3 year peg. At the same time the bank moved to negative interest...
January 21, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Bank of England Minutes Reveals Concerns about Low Inflation Environment

The GBP/USD continued to weaken on Wednesday after the Bank of England’s minutes revealed the details of its first unanimous decision on monetary policy since July. The details of the minutes confirmed what the U.K. bond traders have been demonstrating by their recent trading activity that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in 2015. According to the minutes, BoE policymakers Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty decided to drop their vote for an interest-rate increase. Many believe that...
January 20, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Gold Reaches Highest Level Since Late August on Hedge Buying

February Comex Gold futures rallied to its highest level since August 28 driven by uncertainty over the size and duration of the quantitative easing program the European Central Bank is expected to reveal at its next monetary policy meeting on January 22. In addition to the QE news, traders are also jittery over the elections in Greece on January 25. According to the latest polls, the anti-bailout party Syriza holds an early lead. This is likely to mean that Greece...
January 19, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Short-Covering Boosts EUR/USD in Limited Trade

Trading was limited in most currency and commodity markets on Monday because of the U.S. bank holiday.   Profit-taking and short-covering helped drive the EUR/USD higher as some speculators pared positions to reduce risk ahead of Thursday’s major European Central Bank meeting. The ECB will meet on January 22 to discuss introducing new stimulus, which many traders believe will be quantitative easing. This is essentially the buying of Euro Zone sovereign debt. The early consensus on the street is that...
January 16, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Swiss National Bank Decision Continues to Exert Pressure on Euro

The announcement by the Swiss National Bank on Thursday that shocked the global financial markets continued to influence the price action in the currency and commodity markets on Friday. Although the EUR/USD did not make a new nine-year low today, it traded lower and in a position to take out yesterday’s low at 1.1573. The Forex pair is also in a position to finish the week sharply lower. The decision by the SNB to remove the floor that supported the...
January 16, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The Euro Tumbles After A Surprise From The SNB

The euro plummeted as low as 1.1568 before recovering to trade at 1.1622 after taking a severe hit on the surprise announcement from the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss franc tumbled to trade at 0.8831 down over 13% in a single day against the stronger US dollar. The EURCHF tumbled equally to trade at 1.04 after the SNB said they would no longer support the currency at the 1.20 floor. The Swissy added 15% against the euro. The bank said...
January 15, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Gold Soars after Swiss National Bank Lifts Long-term Price Cap Against Euro

A surprise announcement by the Swiss National Bank created volatility and turmoil in the financial markets today, triggering huge moves in the currency and commodity markets. The SNB decided to scrap its minimum exchange rate policy, which had been in place since 2011, two days after denying it was considering making the change. For four years, the central bank had held its currency at 1.20 Swiss Franc per Euro in an effort to protect its country’s exporters. According to the...
January 15, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Equity and Currency Markets On A Roller Coaster Ride

Late on Wednesday global financial markets went on a roller coaster ride. US retail sales missed expectations by a wide margin upsetting the “Apple Cart”.  Asian equity markets are trading on mixed to positive note with the Nikkei up by 1.46% while Hang Seng is nearly up by 0.2%. US markets started the day with another weak session however to recoup most of the losses during yesterday's session. Stock markets around the world have tumbled, with the Dow industrials near...
January 14, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

EUR/USD Declines to Fresh Nine-Year Low on European Court Decision

The EUR/USD fell to a fresh nine-year low on Wednesday as traders reacted to a ruling by the European Court of Justice. Sellers hit Euro after the ECJ said that the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) bond-buying program was compatible with treaty provisions and was in line with European Union law, as long as certain conditions were met. Although the ruling by the court is non-binding, it opens the door for the European Central Bank to begin its planned quantitative easing...
January 14, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Eurozone Problems About To Blow Across Borders

The US dollar kept its crown tapping another day of gains to trading at 92.47 at this writing after US data continued to show the economy was moving full steam ahead. Worries from the Eurozone might push off a June interest rate increase but did not seem to prevail.  The euro fell by 63 points to trade at 1.1773 after comments from ECB member that Mario Draghi would have the ability to buy government bonds, but that does not mean...
January 13, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Lower than Expected U.K. Consumer Inflation Data Sinks British Pound

The GBP/USD plunged after the Office for National Statistics reported U.K. consumer-price growth slowed to 0.5 percent from 1 percent in November. Traders had priced in a 0.7 percent decline. Core CPI was reported at 1.3%, up from last month’s 1.2% reading but slightly below the 1.4% forecast. The U.K. also reported that PPI Input fell by 2.4% and PPI output declined by 0.3%. With U.K. inflation falling to its lowest level in 15 years, traders have abandoned all hope...
January 12, 2015| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Gold Pops Higher on Weaker U.S. Dollar

February Comex Gold traded higher on Monday because of a weaker U.S. Dollar. The catalyst behind the weakness by the U.S. Dollar was the decline in hourly wages revealed by the December U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report late last week. Gold may also be getting an additional boost from the problems developing with Greece and the Euro Zone. Some traders claim that gold is being underpinned by higher demand fueled by festivals early this year. February Crude Oil finished lower after...
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