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July 28, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

U.S. Dollar Relatively Flat Ahead of Economic Events Later This Week

The GBP/USD traded higher as investors squared positions ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy announcement and Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Although the majority of investors believe the Fed will stay the course until its next meeting in September, some feel the need to lighten up on short positions after an eight day decline just in case there are any surprises. Position-squaring ahead of the U.S. economic events later this week also helped boost...
July 28, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Geopolitical Violence & Unease Keep Forex Traders Sidelined

Currency traders remain sidelined this morning with low volume and little action this morning. Market focus remains on geopolitical turmoil ranging from the Ukraine to Libya on to Iraq and Israel. Over the weekend, the US pulled all embassy personnel from Libya followed by the UK. Almost at the same moment the US announced it was sending Special Forces to Iraq to help combat the threat from ISIS. Moving to the Gaza conflict both sides called for and then violated...
July 25, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Gold Set to Post Second Straight Weekly Loss

December Comex Gold futures recovered slightly on Friday after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. Oversold conditions on the daily chart and a successful test of a key retracement area are contributing to the supportive price action. Gains are being capped, however, by the stronger U.S. Dollar. Since gold is dollar-denominated, a rise in the Greenback tends to lead to diminished demand for gold by foreign investors. This week’s strong U.S. economic data contributed the most to the weakness in gold which fell...
July 25, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Currency Traders Busy On Steady Flow Of Data

Friday morning is light on data with nothing due in Australia or New Zealand. Japan released inflation numbers this morning.  The Japanese yen was little changed against the dollar on the news, staying around 101.75 after hitting a one-week high of 101.82. Japan raised its sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent in April, in a bid to reduce its hefty debt pile, which is one of the highest among the world's industrialized countries. Adjusting for the sales tax effect...
July 24, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

EUR/USD Rebounds on Better Manufacturing Data

Volatility returned to the currency and commodity markets on Thursday along with a series of key economic reports. After reaching a new low for the year early in the session, the EUR/USD rallied after manufacturing growth unexpectedly firmed in July. French Flash Manufacturing PMI came out weaker-than-expected, but Flash Services PMI beat expectations. Both German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI beat estimates. Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI came out at 51.9, better than the estimate of 51.8. Flash Services PMI...
July 23, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Crude Oil Trading Better on Expectations of Inventory Drawdown

September Crude Oil futures are posting a small gain shortly before the release of today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply/demand report. Late last night, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed a 0.555 million-barrel draw for crude, less than expected. At 10:30 a.m. ET, the EIA will release its latest survey. The report is expected to show a drop in crude stocks, but estimates range from down 2.1 to down 2.9 million barrels. Last week, the report showed...
July 23, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

The US Dollar Surprises Traders WIth Strength Coming From All Avenues

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, lifting the S&P 500 to a record, as Wall Street considered quarterly earnings and data that cast a benign light on inflation and progress in the housing market. Asian stock markets rose for a second session on Wednesday thanks to a positive lead from Wall Street but geopolitical concerns remained firmly in focus. European market also ended higher as Ukraine rebellions started co-operating by handing over the black box of Malaysian airlines for further investigation...
July 22, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Rising U.S. Rates Pressure EUR/USD

The U.S. Dollar surged on Tuesday as U.S. consumer inflation met expectations and geopolitical tensions eased. The move in the Greenback pressured the Euro, British Pound, gold and crude oil. The EUR/USD fell to an eight-month low after today’s U.S. inflation data triggered a rise in short-term U.S. Treasury yields. This is a signal that the Federal Reserve will be under pressure to raise interest rates. Traders took a breather from the geopolitical events that had been causing some market...
July 22, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Currency Traders Sitting On Sidelines

Wall Street ended modestly lower as worries about further sanctions against Russia generated some negative sentiment after a passenger plane was shot down near the Ukraine-Russia border last week. The pullback on the day partly offset the strength that was seen last week. European stocks fell sharply, extending a run of topsy-turvy trading amid rising tensions between Russia and the West even though German producer prices came better as per expectation. The euro and the dollar gained ground against the...
July 21, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Forex, Commodity Markets Remain Jittery

Foreign currency and commodity investors remained nervous on Monday because of the geopolitical events in Ukraine and the Gaza strip. On Monday, investors increased positions in the safe haven U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen and gold markets. Investors remained jittery because of the strained relationship between Ukraine and Russia over the downing of the Malaysian airliner last week. No one has claimed responsibility but U.S. officials over the weekend built a strong case against Russia, leading to talk of further sanctions...
July 18, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

EUR/USD Briefly Trades Below 1.3500 “Line in the Sand”

The EUR/USD breached the 1.3500 level just a short while ago suggesting the stimulus methods implemented by the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghi may be working. Shortly after the ECB announcement in June, the major Euro players established a so-called “line in the sand” at 1.3500 while they waited for data to confirm the effectiveness of the ECB’s actions. Earlier in the week, ECB President Draghi said that the high priced Euro was “a risk to the sustainability...
July 17, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Geopolitical Events, Technical Factors Help Boost Crude Oil Futures

September crude oil futures posted another strong rally on Thursday, driven by oversold technical factors and potentially bullish fundamental news. Technically, earlier in the week, the market completed a thirteen session break which exceeded most bearish expectations by 3 to 6 sessions, putting it in the oversold category. Fundamentally, shorts were driven out of the market after weekly supply data showed a sharp fall in U.S. oil stocks last week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S...
July 17, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Global Traders Push Equities But Trading Remains Lackluster

Wall Street advanced on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones to an all-time high. The Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book business survey released on Wednesday, that economic growth was modest to moderate in the latest period as all 12 of its districts reported stronger consumer spending and expanded manufacturing. U.S. stock indices ended in the positive territory on back of on better than expected Chinese economic data. European markets ended in the positive territory on back of on easing...
July 16, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

September Crude Oil Rebounds on Libyan Supply Concerns

After falling below the psychological $100 level for the first time since May, September Crude Oil futures are trading better on Wednesday. Yesterday, the market broke sharply on technical and fundamental factors. Technically, sell stops under a key retracement zone fueled a break while fundamentally, the market was driven lower by bearish remarks about the economy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Traders are pinning the blame on today’s short-covering rally on talk that oil prices may not be able to...
July 15, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

GBP/USD Surges on Jump in U.K. Inflation

Trading is light in the Forex and commodity markets today as investors await the testimony of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen which begins at 10:00 a.m. ET. Traders want to hear whether she maintains her dovish tone, or if she switches gears to a more hawkish outlook. Most traders however agree that she is going to stick with the Fed’s script and declare that the economy is improving, the labor picture is looking better and inflation is under control...
July 15, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Central Bankers Controlling Currency Moves

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting today. The US Dollar traded on a flat note and declined marginally yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments which led to decline in demand for low yielding currency. Further, hint towards rise in interest rates by US Federal Reserve in its minutes meeting in the last week continued with downside movement in the DX. The...
July 14, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Gold Spikes Lower on Technical Sell Stops; Profit-taking

August Comex Gold futures tumbled on Monday after traders failed to maintain last week’s 1.3% gain early in the session, giving some long investors an excuse to book profits. Last week, gold spiked higher after the parent company of Portugal’s second-largest bank missed a debt payment, triggering fears that the region hadn’t resolved its debt issues. Today’s break was likely triggered by concerns over the timing of the next U.S. interest rate hike, testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen...
July 11, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Crude Oil Falters on Demand Concerns

August Crude Oil futures are likely to finish the week lower as concerns over U.S. demand weighed on the market. Oil prices weakened earlier in the week after weekly supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week. Traders had priced in a drop of 0.3 million barrels. Additional factors weighing on crude oil prices were the lack of concern over supply disruptions in the Middle East...
July 11, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Portugal Banking Problems Soar Sending Traders For Safety

Wall Street regained some ground over the course of the session after showing a substantial move to the downside at the start of trading on Thursday. The initial sell-off on Wall Street was partly due to renewed concerns about the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rate sooner than anticipated also weighed on the markets following the release of upbeat jobs data. Meanwhile European stocks ended the lower as Portugal's banking woes threatened to dent the European financial system...
July 10, 2014| FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk

Dovish Fed Minutes, Portugal Debt Issues Boost Gold Prices

August Comex Gold futures traded sharply higher on technical and fundamentals factors on Thursday. Technically, after holding a key support area at $1316.00 for several days, buyers took out the major resistance area at $1334.00, triggering an acceleration to the upside. Fundamentally, the uncertainty created by the release of the latest Fed minutes from its June meeting, helped fuel the breakout to the upside. Foreign currency and commodity markets may both benefit if the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken. Traders...
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