Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: U.S. Demand Falls vs. Geopolitical Risks, Upside Ahead?

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Updated: Apr 25, 2024, 09:29 UTC

Key Points:

U.S. fuel demand drops significantly, highlighting economic slowdown and impacting oil prices.
Middle East tensions may disrupt oil supply, influencing global oil and gas markets.
Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions crucial for future natural gas and oil price directions.

Market Overview

Oil prices remained stable on Thursday, balancing the effects of decreased fuel demand in the U.S.—the world’s largest oil consumer—with potential geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed a significant drop in gasoline and distillate fuel demand, underscoring a slowdown in U.S. economic activities.

Despite this, escalating tensions in the Gaza Strip and potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies are keeping market sentiments cautious. Analysts predict that summer demand, supply constraints, and Chinese and Eurozone economic data will be key drivers of oil prices this quarter.

Additionally, upcoming U.S. economic reports will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, potentially influencing future oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is trading up today at $1.9870, a gain of 0.56%. Currently, it hovers slightly above its pivot point of $1.98, hinting at a potential bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch are at $2.04, $2.13, and $2.22. Conversely, should the price fall, support might be found at $1.91, followed by stronger levels at $1.84 and $1.75.

The technical analysis is supported by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.99 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.93, both suggesting that prices could maintain current levels. The market is bullish as long as it remains above $1.98; however, dipping below this threshold could lead to a significant sell-off.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Today, USOIL is trading at $82.91, showing a modest increase of 0.17%. The commodity is currently positioned above its pivot point at $80.97, suggesting bullish momentum. Looking ahead, key resistance levels are set at $83.77, $85.63, and $87.74. Should the price decline, it will find support at $79.52, followed by $77.26 and $75.77.

The technical indicators reinforce this outlook: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $81.56, while the 200-day EMA is at $79.28, both supporting the current uptrend. The market remains bullish above the $81 mark, but falling below this threshold could prompt a significant sell-off.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL is trading at $88.14 today, marking a slight increase of 0.10%. The oil price is currently just above its pivot point at $87.59, which suggests a bullish trend. Immediate resistance levels are at $89.27, $90.86, and $92.15. If a downturn occurs, support can be found at $86.16, followed by $84.63 and $83.17.

Technical indicators underline the bullish sentiment: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $88.13, closely aligned with today’s price, and the 200-day EMA at $87.12 supports the upward trend. A stable hold above $87.60 indicates continued bullishness, whereas a drop below this could trigger a sharp decline in prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.