AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 1, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD  broke through the psychological 1.05 number to trade at 1.0524 after a positive buildings approval report. Building approvals fell in June, but much less than analysts expected them to, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of dwellings approved eased a seasonally adjusted 2.5 per cent to 13,336 for the month.

This compares to an upwardly revised 13,683 units in May, seasonally adjusted. Economic forecasters had expected a 14.6 per cent fall in approvals in June. Building approvals are now 10.2 per cent higher, seasonally adjusted, than in the same month last year. Analysts had expected the annual fall to reach 5.4 per cent.

The figures encouraged the market that is already optimistic there will be a significant outcome from Thursday night’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The ECB is expected to discuss the possible launch of a government bond-buying program to decrease borrowing costs for debt-laden euro zone nations.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Economic Data July 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

00:00

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

1.3% 

  

 

00:15

 

JPY

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.9

 

 

 

49.9 

 

 

 

00:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.4% 

 

4.4% 

 

 

 

00:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Household Spending (YoY) 

1.6%

 

2.9% 

 

4.0% 

 

 

 

01:30

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY) 

-0.16%

 

0.50% 

 

0.39% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-1.1% 

  

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.5%

 

-14.2% 

 

27.0% 

  

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Unemployment Rate 

2.0%

 

 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Bank Landing (MoM) 

452.57B

 

 

 

445.00B 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Business Confidence 

15.10

 

 

 

12.60 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Aug 1

1:30

AUD

HPI q/q

-1.1%

 

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Aug 2

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.29B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 
 

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.7%

 

23:30

AUD

AIG Services Index

48.8

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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