AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 14, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD  is trading at 1.0561 as the day winds down in Oz. The Australian dollar as remained strong even with the weight of the poor Chinese data released last week.

China released their July eco data, which showed retail sales tumbling, trade growth declining and industrial production down. Markets are starting to think that the 7.6% growth rate forecast by China is still off the market. China recently reduced their forecast from 8.1% to 7.6% but an advisor to the PBoC said recently that 7.4% could be a better forecast.

Markets are hoping that the Chinese government will offer a large stimulus package to get their economy back on track.

The USD strenghtened over the weekend on the poor reports from China and some not so bad US eco releases.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 13

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

1.3% 

   

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-1.1%

 

-0.8% 

 

-1.3% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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