AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is struggling against the USD to trade at 1.0515. After a week of positive data from Australia, the Aussie seemed set to breakthrough and maintain the 1.06 range with a lot of analysts predicting a rise to 1.08.

The US dollar gained some momentum back on the quiet day yesterday. But this morning in OZ there were a few regional eco releases including business confidence and motor vehicle sales which were very positive, we should see the AUD rebound in today’s session.

Overall it’s the weigh from China and Japan that is holding the AUD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 14

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-24%

 

-23% 

 

-22% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

-3 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Trade Balance 

2.80B

 

 

 

2.70B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Estonian Unemployment Rate (YoY) 

10.20%

 

 

 

11.50% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian WPI (YoY) 

 

 

7.37% 

 

7.25% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Finnish CPI (YoY) 

2.90%

 

 

 

2.80% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

1.7% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

6.7

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

63.5B

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.3%

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-3.7M

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

 

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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