AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012 Forecast

Posted August 14, 2012 7:03 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is struggling against the USD to trade at 1.0515. After a week of positive data from Australia, the Aussie seemed set to breakthrough and maintain the 1.06 range with a lot of analysts predicting a rise to 1.08.

The US dollar gained some momentum back on the quiet day yesterday. But this morning in OZ there were a few regional eco releases including business confidence and motor vehicle sales which were very positive, we should see the AUD rebound in today’s session.

Overall it’s the weigh from China and Japan that is holding the AUD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 14	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-24%	-23%	-22%
	JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.1%	-0.3%	0.9%
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	4		-3
	AUD	New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)	-0.8%		-1.0%
	KRW	South Korean Trade Balance	2.80B		2.70B
	EUR	Estonian Unemployment Rate (YoY)	10.20%		11.50%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.2%	0.0%
	EUR	French GDP (QoQ)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	INR	Indian WPI (YoY)		7.37%	7.25%
	EUR	Finnish CPI (YoY)	2.90%		2.80%
	EUR	German GDP (YoY)	0.5%	1.0%	1.7%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 15	0:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		3.7%
	1:30	AUD	Wage Price Index q/q	0.9%	0.9%
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	6.7	7.4
	13:00	USD	TIC Long-Term Purchases	63.5B	55.0B
	13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	79.3%	78.9%
	13:15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.5%	0.4%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-3.7M
Aug 16	1:00	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations		3.3%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-4.3	-12.9
	22:45	NZD	PPI Input q/q		0.3%
Aug 17	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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