AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted August 15, 2012 5:46 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD declined to trade at 1.0476. It is a quiet data week in Australia. Following the RBA’s upgrade to its near term economic growth and inflation forecasts on Friday, the money market is now pricing 64pts of rate cuts to June 2013. The reduction in market pricing for RBA rate cuts and low volatility are expected to keep the AUD firm this week. However, offshore events still have the potential to change both the sentiment regarding global growth prospects and volatility. In particular, Eurozone GDP has brought the weakness in the region back into focus. There is no major Chinese data to be released.

It is US data that through a monkey into the wrench so to speak with US retail sales reporting well above forecast, also US PPI reported above forecast, dipping the possibility of Fed stimulus. Housing data is due up next in the US.

This morning Westpac consumer sentiment was negative but theWage Price Index came in above forecast, giving a bit of strength to the Aussie

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 15

01:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-2.50%

3.70%

02:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

0.8%

0.9%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 16	1:00	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations		3.3%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-4.3	-12.9
	22:45	NZD	PPI Input q/q		0.3%
Aug 17	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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