AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD declined to trade at 1.0476. It is a quiet data week in Australia.  Following the RBA’s upgrade to its near term economic growth and inflation forecasts on Friday, the money market is now pricing 64pts of rate cuts to June 2013.  The reduction in market pricing for RBA rate cuts and low volatility are expected to keep the AUD firm this week.  However, offshore events still have the potential to change both the sentiment regarding global growth prospects and volatility.  In particular, Eurozone GDP has brought the weakness in the region back into focus. There is no major Chinese data to be released.

It is US data that through a monkey into the wrench so to speak with US retail sales reporting well above forecast, also US PPI reported above forecast, dipping the possibility of Fed stimulus. Housing data is due up next in the US.

This morning Westpac consumer sentiment was negative but theWage Price Index came in above forecast, giving a bit of strength to the Aussie

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 15

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

 

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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