AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD continues to decline to trade at 1.0472. The US dollar traded on the upside most of the day on Thursday until the release of US housing, manufacturing sales and unemployment. Although equity markets saw positive in all of these currency traders were not so sure. Data was slightly under forecast, but better than it had been in prior releases.

On the other hand, investors saw that the Feds were once again pushed into providing stimulus.

Comments from the Chinese Premier, continued to weigh on the Aussie while market hope and wait for stimulus from the PBoC, if offered this would support the AUD. But it also an indication of continuing decline in the economic environment in China.

Bond yields between the US and Australia also weighed on the currency.

There is nothing in the way of eco data and news flow is expected to be light so it should be a quiet day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16-17, 2012 actual v. forecast (No Asian releases on the 17th)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 21

1:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 
 

3:00

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

2.4%

 

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.30T

Aug 22

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.8%

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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