AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012 Forecast

Posted August 17, 2012 5:16 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD continues to decline to trade at 1.0472. The US dollar traded on the upside most of the day on Thursday until the release of US housing, manufacturing sales and unemployment. Although equity markets saw positive in all of these currency traders were not so sure. Data was slightly under forecast, but better than it had been in prior releases.

On the other hand, investors saw that the Feds were once again pushed into providing stimulus.

Comments from the Chinese Premier, continued to weigh on the Aussie while market hope and wait for stimulus from the PBoC, if offered this would support the AUD. But it also an indication of continuing decline in the economic environment in China.

Bond yields between the US and Australia also weighed on the currency.

There is nothing in the way of eco data and news flow is expected to be light so it should be a quiet day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16-17, 2012 actual v. forecast (No Asian releases on the 17th)

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 16

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.1%

3.3%

3.2%

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.3%

-0.1%

0.8%

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.8%

1.4%

2.6%

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.9%

1.6%

USD

Building Permits

0.812M

0.770M

0.760M

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

-7.89B

10.67B

26.11B

USD

Housing Starts

0.746M

0.757M

0.754M

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

-0.40%

0.40%

-0.40%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

366K

365K

364K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3305K

3300K

3336K

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-5.0

-12.9

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 21	1:30	AUD	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	3:00	NZD	Inflation Expectations q/q	2.4%
	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.30T
Aug 22	0:30	AUD	MI Leading Index m/m	0.8%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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