AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 21, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0444 gaining back some of last week’s losses.  Earlier in today’s session the Aussie was down as pressure from the USD weighed on commodity currencies, as the possibility of monetary stimulus in the US fades, on positive eco data, the USD has gained momentum.

This week will tell the story with additional housing data and durable goods in the lineup. There has been no supportive data for the Aussie with little on the eco calendar and little in the way of global news, or economic news expected this week.

The greenback rallied on the weekend, after the release of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, which rose to 73.6 in August, from 72.3 the previous month. This was the index’s highest position since May.

The release on Tuesday of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August 7 meeting could be influential for the AUD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

(No release in for the AUD, NZD or the JPY on Monday morning)

Aug. 16 

 

NZD

 

 

PPI Input (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

Aug. 17

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6

 

72.4 

 

72.3 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Aug. 21

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

 

 

 

 

2.4% 

 

 

Aug. 22

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-0.46T 

 

-0.30T 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

4.52M 

 

4.37M 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug. 23

03:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

 

 

 

49.30 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

365K 

 

366K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3300K 

 

3305K 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

 

365K 

 

350K 

 

 

 

23:45

 

NZD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-47M 

 

331M 

 

 

Aug. 24

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08:45

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

0.5% 

 

-1.4% 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

2.5% 

 

1.3% 

  

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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