AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0389 tumbling in the past few days after hitting 1.0505 towards the end of last week.

Although Glenn Stevens from the RBA gave a fairly positive report on the economy, he cited concerns from China, Europe and the US.

Stimulus from the US would help the value of the Aussie, which Mr. Steven said is overpriced. It is the pacific region which is weighing down the AUD, with negative data from China and Japan.

The hopes of stimulus from China had buoyed the Aussie, but as hopes fade so does support.

Just this morning, new data released in China on industrial profits disappointed, – (Y/Y) -2.7% in July vs -2.2% in June – suggesting further signs of a slowdown. Earlier on the day, a headline from the UK Telegraph informed Beijing had announced “stimulus projects” totaling 8 trillion yuan (upwards of US$1.2 trillion) over the weekend, aiming to bolster growth again. According to Nomura strategist, Wen’s visit to Guangdong province on 24-25 August, and the latest actions announced, signals “concerns over growth have strengthened.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 24 & 27, 2012 actual v. forecast (there were no releases for the AUD, NZD or JPY on Monday morning)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 24

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-1.5%

 

2.8% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-2.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

4.2%

 

2.4% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.9 

 

02:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5% 

Aug. 29

23:45

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

5.7% 

 

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2% 

 

02:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.5% 

Aug. 30

02:30

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

6.1% 

Aug. 31

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6% 

 

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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