AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 28, 2012 Forecast

Posted August 27, 2012 4:32 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0389 tumbling in the past few days after hitting 1.0505 towards the end of last week.

Although Glenn Stevens from the RBA gave a fairly positive report on the economy, he cited concerns from China, Europe and the US.

Stimulus from the US would help the value of the Aussie, which Mr. Steven said is overpriced. It is the pacific region which is weighing down the AUD, with negative data from China and Japan.

The hopes of stimulus from China had buoyed the Aussie, but as hopes fade so does support.

Just this morning, new data released in China on industrial profits disappointed, – (Y/Y) -2.7% in July vs -2.2% in June – suggesting further signs of a slowdown. Earlier on the day, a headline from the UK Telegraph informed Beijing had announced “stimulus projects” totaling 8 trillion yuan (upwards of US$1.2 trillion) over the weekend, aiming to bolster growth again. According to Nomura strategist, Wen’s visit to Guangdong province on 24-25 August, and the latest actions announced, signals “concerns over growth have strengthened.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 24 & 27, 2012 actual v. forecast (there were no releases for the AUD, NZD or JPY on Monday morning)

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 24

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

JPY

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ)

-1.5%

2.8%

1.9%

GBP

GDP (QoQ)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.7%

GBP

GDP (YoY)

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.8%

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-0.4%

0.5%

-2.2%

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

4.2%

2.4%

1.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug. 28	15:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	65.9
	02:30	AUD	Construction Work Done (QoQ)	5.5%
Aug. 29	23:45	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)	5.7%
	00:50	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.2%
	02:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-2.5%
Aug. 30	02:30	AUD	Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)	6.1%
Aug. 31	00:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.6%
	00:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.4%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

28/8 10:30 Spain

28/8 11:00 Italy

28/8 19:00 US

29/8 11:00 Italy

29/8 19:00 US

30/8 05:35 Japan

30/8 11:00 Italy

30/8 19:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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