AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 3, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD  is gaining momentum on two fronts this morning. Anticipation of monetary stimulus in the EU, and also on positive eco data. The Aussie Trade Balance reported well above the expected forecast compounded with retail sales reporting in well above forecast, the AUD have been able to fend off the growing strength of the USD. The Aussie is headed back to the 1.05 price level trading at 1.0481 and rising.

After the FOMC held monetary policy, the USD gained momentum especially against the commodity currencies, pushing the AUD and the NZD lower.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 02

 

JPY

 

 

 

10-Year JGB Auction 

0.772%

 

 

 

0.836% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

8.6%

 

6.2% 

 

5.9% 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

 

 

-2.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

0.01B

 

-0.35B 

 

-0.31B 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 06  09:10  Norway

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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