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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 30, 2015, 05:53 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD dipped 2 points to 0.7188 even though data was in positive this morning. The US dollar continued to climb in the

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

audusd monday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD dipped 2 points to 0.7188 even though data was in positive this morning. The US dollar continued to climb in the Asian session weighing on the Aussie.  Traders will be eyeing central bank meetings in Australia on Tuesday, Canada on Wednesday and Europe on Thursday. The key focus this week will be on the Reserve Bank’s board meeting and interest rate decision on Tuesday.

The RBA is widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged after governor Glenn Stevens last week gave a very clear signal that he was prepared to wait for the first meeting in 2016 before considering another interest rate cut.

Comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen will also be closely watched this week, including a speech to the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday and testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of the Senate on Thursday.

Several other Fed officials are slated to speak this week too, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed boss John Williams on Wednesday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Thursday, as well as Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker, St Louis Fed boss James Bullard and the Minneapolis Fed’s Narayana Kocherlakota on Friday.

The Australian dollar is likely to fall further this week as traders see Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting to be a non-event after governor Glenn Stevens told the market to “chill out” at a recent speech.

Australia’s official GDP figures, released on Wednesday, also have a downside risk with strategists anticipating figures below market consensus of 0.7 percent quarter on quarter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Oct)

5.1%

3.0%

-5.8%

   

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)  

1.4%

1.9%

1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

1.8%

0.8%

-0.2%

 

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

14.6%

15.0%

10.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

1.3%

1.0%

-0.5%

   

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

0.7%

0.6%

0.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)

 

 

50.2

 

 

  JPY

 

Capital Spending (YoY) (Q3)

 

 

5.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

 

-2.3%

2.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Current Account (Q3)

 

-16.5B

-19.0B

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

53.1

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

48.3

48.3

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.6

52.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change

 

-5K

-5K

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

6.4%

6.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

52.8

52.8

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

54.0

55.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

 

10.8%

10.8%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

 

52.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Employment

 

48.5

47.6

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

 

50.4

50.1

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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