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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Dec 1, 2015, 05:33 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD climbed 43 points to make it back solidly over the 0.72 level and is trading at 0.7269 after the RBA held rates

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 – Forecast

audusd tuesday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD climbed 43 points to make it back solidly over the 0.72 level and is trading at 0.7269 after the RBA held rates and policy this morning. Some analysts were thinking that Glenn Stevens would drop the lending rate due to stress from China and falling export prices. The AUD current account widened more than expected but did not seem to raise any problems. Building approvals which have been weak as of late soared weigh above forecast coming in the 3.9% increase with an upward revision to last month’s number also showing strong and positive moves in the housing markets.

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index, released 45 minutes earlier than the Caixin survey results, came in at 49.6 – slightly lower than October’s 49.8, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

This is the official measurement’s fourth straight month of contraction, taking the reading to a three-year low and fueling persistent concerns about sluggish growth in China despite a long series of stimulus measures, including six interest rate cuts since November 2014.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed the number of buildings approved rose a seasonally adjusted 3.9 per cent in the month to a total of 19,652 dwellings. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a 2.5 per cent fall in approvals. The Australian dollar rose on the figures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 2 per cent for the seventh month in a row on Tuesday, but left the door ajar for a further cut in 2016.

The decision to hold was widely expected and the Australian dollar held steady at around 0.7260  before climbing to around 0.7275.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)

3.9%

-2.3%

2.3%

   

  AUD

 

Current Account (Q3)

-18.1B

-16.5B

-20.5B

   

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

49.6

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

53.6

 

53.1

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

48.6

48.3

48.3

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Nov)

 

53.1

52.0

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

   

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.7%

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

2.3%

2.0%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Nov)

 

58.2

58.8

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)  

 

1.1%

1.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Nov)  

 

0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

190K

182K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)

 

2.2%

1.6%

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)

 

1.1%

1.4%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-1.125M

0.961M

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

 

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