Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD climbed 43 points to make it back solidly over the 0.72 level and is trading at 0.7269 after the RBA held rates
The AUD/USD climbed 43 points to make it back solidly over the 0.72 level and is trading at 0.7269 after the RBA held rates and policy this morning. Some analysts were thinking that Glenn Stevens would drop the lending rate due to stress from China and falling export prices. The AUD current account widened more than expected but did not seem to raise any problems. Building approvals which have been weak as of late soared weigh above forecast coming in the 3.9% increase with an upward revision to last month’s number also showing strong and positive moves in the housing markets.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index, released 45 minutes earlier than the Caixin survey results, came in at 49.6 – slightly lower than October’s 49.8, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
This is the official measurement’s fourth straight month of contraction, taking the reading to a three-year low and fueling persistent concerns about sluggish growth in China despite a long series of stimulus measures, including six interest rate cuts since November 2014.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed the number of buildings approved rose a seasonally adjusted 3.9 per cent in the month to a total of 19,652 dwellings. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a 2.5 per cent fall in approvals. The Australian dollar rose on the figures.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 2 per cent for the seventh month in a row on Tuesday, but left the door ajar for a further cut in 2016.
The decision to hold was widely expected and the Australian dollar held steady at around 0.7260 before climbing to around 0.7275.
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Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct) |
3.9% |
-2.3% |
2.3% |
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AUD |
Current Account (Q3) |
-18.1B |
-16.5B |
-20.5B |
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JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
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CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
49.6 |
49.8 |
49.8 |
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CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
53.6 |
|
53.1 |
|
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CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
48.6 |
48.3 |
48.3 |
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CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Nov) |
|
53.1 |
52.0 |
|
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AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.7% |
0.2% |
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AUD |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
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2.3% |
2.0% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
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GBP |
Construction PMI (Nov) |
|
58.2 |
58.8 |
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EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
1.1% |
1.1% |
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
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USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
|
190K |
182K |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.2% |
1.6% |
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USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.1% |
1.4% |
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USD |
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks |
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USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
-1.125M |
0.961M |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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USD |
Beige Book |
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USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono
Dec 03 10:50 France
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%
Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec
Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec
Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus