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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of June 27, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Jun 25, 2016, 05:19 UTC

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7470 down 2% on Friday as the greenback rallied on safe haven trades after the UK voted to leave the EU. The Australian dollar

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of June 27, 2016

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7470 down 2% on Friday as the greenback rallied on safe haven trades after the UK voted to leave the EU. The Australian dollar trimmed its early losses against the US and Canadian dollars in European deals on Friday.

The Aussie bounced off to 0.9678 against the loonie, from its early 9-day low of 0.9493. This may be compared to its previous session’s near 2-month high of 0.9745.

The Aussie reversed from its early 8-day low of 0.7304 against the greenback, rising back to 0.7436. The Aussie had hit a 2-month high of 0.7647 at the beginning of today’s trading.

If the Aussie extends rise, it may find resistance around 0.76 against the greenback and 0.98 against the loonie.

Investors ditched the pound for the greenback en-masse as the result of the UK vote became clear, Commonwealth Bank chief currency strategist Richard Grace said. Plunging Asian equity markets and commodity prices added to the broader risk-off movement, he said. “This is all obviously driven by the Brexit,” Mr Grace said.

He warned the Aussie was still facing downside risks because of the large falls set to occur on the world’s major share markets, as a lot of local asset managers are over-hedged on their offshore asset exposure.

“They will be forced to sell Aussie until month-end to balance the hedge ratios,” Mr Grace said. “I think we’ll see it go down further.” However, CBA is still forecasting the Australian dollar will sit at 73 US cents by the end of 2016.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week:

 
Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
    USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   1.0% 0.8%
    USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)   93.3 92.6
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
    USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)   -1.1% 5.1%
    USD Crude Oil Inventories     -0.917M
Thursday, June 30, 2016
    GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.4%
    GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1)   2.0% 2.0%
    EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)     -0.1%
    CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)   0.1% -0.2%
Friday, July 1, 2016
    Canada – Canada Day
    JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)   4 6
    JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index   19 22
    CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   50.0 50.1
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   49.2 49.2
    GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   50.2 50.1
    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   51.5 51.3

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