AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012 Forecast

Posted July 27, 2012 5:35 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is exchanging this morning at 1.0409 rallying considerably, up 0.7% from yesterday’s close as risk assets have been boosted by EUR-supportive comments from ECB President Draghi. Market participants are also likely positioning for tomorrow’s US GDP release given expectations for weakness that should increase the chances of Fed stimulus, driving down the USD and helping higher-beta currencies such as AUD. In terms of fundamentals, the Australian economy remains relatively strong, with a solid AAA rating, ongoing growth in demand for commodities, and relatively elevated interest rates.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 27

KRW

South Korean Current Account

3.68B

5.00B

3.13B

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.6%

-0.7%

-0.6%

JPY

National Core CPI (YoY)

-0.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

0.2%

1.2%

3.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Jul 30	23:30	JPY	Household Spending y/y	4.0%
Jul 31	1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence	12.6
	1:30	AUD	Building Approvals m/m	27.3%
	1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.5%
	1:30	JPY	Average Cash Earnings y/y	-1.1%
	12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Employment Cost Index q/q	0.4%
	12:30	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.0%
	13:00	USD	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	-1.9%
	13:45	USD	Chicago PMI	52.9
	14:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	62.0
Aug 1	1:30	AUD	HPI q/q	-1.1%
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	176K
	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	49.7
	18:15	USD	FOMC Statement
Aug 2	1:30	AUD	Retail Sales m/m	0.5%
	1:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.29B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	14:00	USD	Factory Orders m/m	0.7%
	23:30	AUD	AIG Services Index	48.8
Aug 3	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	80K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%
	12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	0.3%
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	52.1

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 30 09:10 Italy

Jul 30 10:00 Belgium

Jul 31 00:30 Japan

Jul 31 09:30 Belgium

Aug 01 09:30 Germany

Aug 01 10:00 Norway

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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