AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD continues to shine, trading at 1.0474 trying to break the 1.05 price level. This morning, the Aussie tipped at 104.97 US cents, its highest level in four months.

Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi have all vowed to protect the euro from the debt crisis.

The remarks come ahead of the Friday’s ECB policy meeting where a solution to decrease borrowing costs for debt-laden euro zone nations is likely to be discussed.

Markets will watch this week for results as the ECB meets later this week, also the FOMC 2 day meeting concluded on August 1, and traders wait to see if the US Fed will offer any stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 29-30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 29

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean manufacturing BSI Index 

69.00

 

 

 

81.00 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Building Consents (MoM) 

5.7%

 

 

 

-7.1% 

 

 

Jul. 30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

2.8%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 
                           

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 31

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

12.6

 

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

27.3%

 

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

-1.1%

 

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Employment Cost Index q/q

0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.0%

 

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-1.9%

 

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.9

 

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

62.0

Aug 1

1:30

AUD

HPI q/q

-1.1%

 

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Aug 2

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.29B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 
 

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.7%

 

23:30

AUD

AIG Services Index

48.8

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

 

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