AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis June 18, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is ending the session at 100.13 close to parity, as markets position themselves before the Greek elections.

Central banks of the G20 nations announced yesterday a plan to work in unison, if necessary to support the global banking system in case of a breakdown, after elections this coming week and worries about Spain.

Angela Merkel said on Thursday in an address to parliament before leaving for the weekend gathering that Europe’s debt woes “will overshadow all other topics” and all eyes would be on Germany as Europe’s biggest economy.

She maintained that she would defend Germany’s view that a mix of fiscal tightening and reforms was the only way to overcome the crisis and to return to sustainable growth.

She said: “We must all resist the temptation to finance growth again through new debt.”

Meanwhile, G20 officials have reportedly confirmed central banks will pump funds into financial markets if the crucial Greek election on Sunday results in a credit squeeze, according to Reuters.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 14 -15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

<0.25%

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI y/y

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

CAD

NHPI m/m

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

377K

380K

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.0%

USD

Current Account

-137B

-132B

-119B

Jun 15

JPY

Overnight Call Rate

<0.10%

<0.10%

<0.10%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 18

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

 

-0.7%

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 19

1:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

   

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

22:45

NZD

Current Account

 

-2.76B

23:50

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

   

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

 

-0.48T

Jun 20

0:00

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

 

0.2%

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

0.4%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

22:45

NZD

GDP q/q

 

0.3%

Jun 21

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

 

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