AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast

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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 23, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading in the red at 0.9788 down by 19 points. Today, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index reported weaker than last month. Data showed a turn down in sentiment. The Westpac/Melbourne Institute May consumer sentiment survey, conducted in the week the budget was released, showed there were more people pessimists about the economy than optimistic.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the negative mood was partly due to renewed concerns over the state of the economy, fuelled largely by the federal budget.

Later today, the US Federal Reserve chairman will testify before a Congressional committee. He is expected to comment on whether the Fed will start winding down its economic stimulus program called quantitative easing (QE) following a recent string of encouraging economic data.

There were two Fed members on the wires this past session: St Louis Fed President James Bullard and New York Fed President William Dudley. Both are voters (most of the more bombastic comments to cross the wires over past weeks were from non-voters), and I would label them ‘fence-sitters’ – neither strongly supportive of boundless QE3 purchases nor showing favor for a near-term tapering. Dudley maintained his ambiguous position on when a change in the Fed’s policy machine will be needed. Bullard’s comments were far more interesting. The statement that he doesn’t see a good case for tapering QE unless inflation rises is far more direct and suggests he won’t vote to curb stimulus at the June 19 meeting

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 22, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 22

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.76T

 

-0.61T 

 

-0.92T 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-7.00%

 

 

 

-5.10% 

 

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

Taiwanese Unemployment Rate 

4.19%

 

4.20% 

 

4.18% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

  

 audusd 0522bns

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

May 23

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.50

50.40

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

345K

360K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3000K

3009K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

425K

417K

 

23:45

NZD

Trade Balance 

480M

718M

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

May 23 02:30 Australia

May 23 05:35 Japan

May 23 10:30 Spain

May 23 11:03 Sweden

May 23 18:00 Canada

May 23 19:00 US

May 24 12:10 UK

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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