AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.9795. Australia’s recent eco data has been overall negative, adding today with a disappointing retail sales number, economists had forecast an increase of 0.2% and the actual was the reverse at -.02%. The Aussie continues to suffer, due to the slowdown in China and Japan. It is difficult for the local economy to survive and grow when its major trading partners are not.

Compound this with the risk aversion, safe haven theme of the markets pushing the yen and the greenback to elevated highs. The commodity currency has no way to mount a defense.

Yesterday, as investors turned their focus to Spain after a fairly optimistic day, the USD soared, the euro plummeted to below 1.25 and gold dropped. All of the USD crosses suffered.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 29 – 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

21

 

-7 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

64.9

 

70.0 

 

68.7 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

Building Consents

-7.2%

 

-10.0% 

 

19.8% 

 

 

May 30 

 

AUD

 

 

Construction Work Done

5.5%

 

3.0% 

 

-3.4% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 31

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

35.8

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

7.4%

1:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure q/q

-0.3%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

0.4%

1:30

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

1.3%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending q/y

7.6%

Jun 1

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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