AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012 Forecast

Posted May 30, 2012 6:23 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.9795. Australia’s recent eco data has been overall negative, adding today with a disappointing retail sales number, economists had forecast an increase of 0.2% and the actual was the reverse at -.02%. The Aussie continues to suffer, due to the slowdown in China and Japan. It is difficult for the local economy to survive and grow when its major trading partners are not.

Compound this with the risk aversion, safe haven theme of the markets pushing the yen and the greenback to elevated highs. The commodity currency has no way to mount a defense.

Yesterday, as investors turned their focus to Spain after a fairly optimistic day, the USD soared, the euro plummeted to below 1.25 and gold dropped. All of the USD crosses suffered.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 29 – 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

-7

-6

EUR

German CPI (MoM)

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

EUR

German CPI (YoY)

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

70.0

68.7

NZD

Building Consents

-7.2%

-10.0%

19.8%

May 30

AUD

Construction Work Done

5.5%

3.0%

-3.4%

AUD

Retail Sales

-0.2%

0.2%

1.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency		Previous
May 31	1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence	35.8
	1:30	AUD	Building Approvals m/m	7.4%
	1:30	AUD	Private Capital Expenditure q/q	-0.3%
	1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.4%
	1:30	JPY	Average Cash Earnings y/y	1.3%
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	119K
	12:30	USD	Prelim GDP q/q	2.2%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	370K
	13:45	USD	Chicago PMI	56.2
	15:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	0.9M
	23:50	JPY	Capital Spending q/y	7.6%
Jun 1	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	115K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.1%
	12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.3%
	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	54.8

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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