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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 16 points while the US dollar declined 22 points pushing the Aussie to 0.7272. A dip on construction work

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

audusd wednesday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 16 points while the US dollar declined 22 points pushing the Aussie to 0.7272. A dip on construction work limited the gains of the Aussie. Construction work done in Australia has fallen faster than expected in the September quarter as engineering work dries up amid the mining investment bust.

But residential building has lifted to a record high level, as low interest rates continue to buoy construction in the sector.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed total construction work for the three months to September decreased 3.6 per cent to $49.04 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, showing a faster-than-expected deterioration compared to economist forecasts of a 2 per cent drop. The fresh data reveals construction work is 3.7 per cent lower than at the same time a year ago.

Also on Wednesday, the government noted that skilled vacancies were up 0.6 percent on month in October after rising a downwardly revised 1.1 percent in September. Consumer confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly seen a substantial deterioration in the month of November, the Conference Board revealed in a report on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index tumbled to 90.4 in November from an upwardly revised 99.1 in October.  Data weighed heavily on the AUD in the morning session.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.600M

-0.200M

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

-3.6%

-2.1%

2.1%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 26, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

 

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

 

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-3.0%

-4.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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