AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0234 strengthening on news from China of a massive stimulus program initiated overnight. The Chinese central bank injects fresh liquidity into China’s financial system ($41 billion) via a daily operation, in an effort to stimulate economic growth. Asian stocks rallied on the China news. Meantime, European Union finance ministers are meeting in Luxembourg Tuesday to work on a plan for EU bank supervision. Reports said little progress is being made. Spain has yet to ask for formal EU bailout assistance, even though European Central Bank president Draghi said Tuesday the ECB is ready to implement its bond buying program should Spain as for assistance. The AUD is holding waiting for the release of unemployment numbers.

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, released on Wednesday, showed a rise by one per cent to 99.2 per cent for October. However, the survey has been below 100 – indicating more pessimistic than optimistic views about the economy – for eight months. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the result was disappointing, especially in light of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cut last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 10

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

 

 

1.60% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean M2 Money supply 

9.20%

 

 

 

9.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German WPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 

-3.0%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Finnish Industry Output (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

 

 

2.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 11

01:30

AUD

Employment Change 

3.8K 

-8.8K 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.0B 

-42.0B 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3275K 

3281K 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-4.0B 

-191.0B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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