AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0236 climbing a few pips after the release of the unemployment numbers. Unemployment in Australia lifted to a 29-month high in September, more than analyst expectations, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. According to the data, the total number of jobs in Australia increased by 14,500, or 0.1 per cent, to 11,511,900 in the month. Analysts had expected the figures to show a total rise of 5,000 jobs in the month. However, the rise in jobs was offset by an increase in the total number of unemployed individuals, which jumped by 6.2 per cent to 662,700. The result sees the unemployment rate jump to 5.4 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in August. Analysts had expected the rate to rise to 5.2 per cent.

Traders seem to only be focusing on the creation of jobs as the Australian dollar has rallied after key employment data showed more than 14,000 jobs were added to the economy in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 11

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) 

-3.3%

 

-2.5% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

1.0%

 

 

 

0.9% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

MI Inflation Expectations 

2.6%

 

 

 

2.4% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

14.5K

 

3.8K 

 

-9.1K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

 

5.3% 

 

5.1% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

 

2.75% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

MYR

 

 

Malaysian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.7%

 

-2.0% 

 

2.9% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Household Confidence 

40.1

 

41.2 

 

40.5 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 12

00:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.5% 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.2% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.8% 

1.7% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

77.9 

78.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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