AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD  followed the rest of its neighbors in the region to climb to 1.0272. Market participants focus on a stronger headline jobs number despite a generally mixed employment report.    While the headline 14.5k gain beat expectations of 5.0k, an increase in the participation rate drove a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.1%.

It’s the fourth day of gains for AUD/USD but it has been a struggle, unlike recent rallies that have been fast a powerful. The upshot is that today’s rally broke through minor resistance at 1.0276 and back above the 100-day moving avg.

The Aussie has benefited from positive signs out of China with infrastructure announcements being announced or brought forward and there have been constructive indications on monetary policy from the central bank so, there is a positive international backdrop for the Aussie. The key event for the Australian dollar over the weekend would be the release of Chinese trade figures tomorrow.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Oct. 12

 

PEN

 

 

Peruvian Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

4.25%

4.25% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (YoY) 

-1.4%

-1.4%

-1.9% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

-1.9% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

M2 Money Stock (YoY) 

2.4%

2.4%

2.4% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

-1.0% 

 

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.3% 

 

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.6% 

0.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

 

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