AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 5:45 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading in early the early Monday session at 1.0223.The Aussie deflated to the morning’s low as it took its cue from the euro. The release of Australian housing finance data and Chinese inflation data failed to spark a dramatic move, as they mostly all met market expectations.

The number of home loans granted to owner-occupiers in August rose by the fastest pace since November, reflecting the impact of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate cuts in the current easing cycle. The number of home loans rose 1.8% month-on-month in August after a revised 0.7% fall in July (revised from -1.0% reported earlier), data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed. The outcome was close to MNI’s median consensus, which was a 1.7% increase.

China’s consumer price index rose 1.9% y/y in September, decelerating from Augusts’ 2.0% and matching the rate of inflation expected by economists. The 3.6% y/y drop in headline producer prices last month was also in line with the median of a survey of economic forecasts conducted by MNI, though indicated a pick-up over Augusts’ 3.5% drop.

Also over the weekend, China surprised markets with some positive eco data. ( see chart below )

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 13

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance

27.70B

20.40B

26.66B

CNY

Chinese M2 Money Stock

14.8%

13.6%

13.5%

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

GBP

Rightmove House Price In

3.5%

-0.6%

AUD

Home Loans (MoM)

1.8%

1.4%

-0.7%

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (M

4.7%

4.3%

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY)

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY)

-3.6%

-3.6%

-3.5%

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM)

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

CNY

Chinese FDI

-3.40%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.6%

-1.3%

SGD

Singaporean Retail Sales

3.2%

0.6%

-2.9%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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