AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is flat this morning with little reaction to the release of much expected Chinese GDP. The giants GDP tumbled to 7.4% as expected. Other reports released including retail sales and Industrial production soared above forecast.  Chinese retail sales data showed the total sales of consumer goods in September grew 14.2 per cent year on year to 18,227 billion yuan. Compared to total sales in August, this is a one per cent rise from 13.2 per cent. The figure was hit above analysts’ expectations for a rise of 13.2 per cent.

Chinese investment in fixed assets over the first three quarters to September grew 20.5 per cent year-on-year. This was a 0.3 per cent increase compared to the first two quarters to June, 2012. Industrial production growth fell to 8.9 per cent over the month of September, data also showed. This is compared to the 9.2 per cent rise recorded in August, but is slightly lower than the nine per cent analysts had expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 18

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-2.00

 

 

 

-2.00 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.5%

 

20.2% 

 

20.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.4%

 

7.4% 

 

7.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.0% 

 

8.9% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.2% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 19 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.73M 

4.82M 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 21 10:30 Portugal 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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