AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD  is trading at 102.25 after mixed data reports this morning. Building approvals soared well above forecast, reporting at an increase of 6.4%, which will help stabilize the housing market over the next few months, but the big negative today, was a huge decline in retail sales, markets had expected an increase of 0.4% while print was only reported at 0.2%, which will weigh on consumer confidence.

Earlier this week the RBA unexpectedly reduced its key lending rate by 25basis points to 3.25% which also weighed on the Aussie. This compounded with poor data from China, the AUD is very weak. Also the AUD trade balance widened this month as reported yesterday. All in all the Aussie is facing some major challenges.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 04

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

6.4%

 

4.7% 

 

-21.2% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 05

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

110K 

96K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4 

34.4 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

125K 

103K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country   

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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