AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 04, 2012 6:31 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 102.25 after mixed data reports this morning. Building approvals soared well above forecast, reporting at an increase of 6.4%, which will help stabilize the housing market over the next few months, but the big negative today, was a huge decline in retail sales, markets had expected an increase of 0.4% while print was only reported at 0.2%, which will weigh on consumer confidence.

Earlier this week the RBA unexpectedly reduced its key lending rate by 25basis points to 3.25% which also weighed on the Aussie. This compounded with poor data from China, the AUD is very weak. Also the AUD trade balance widened this month as reported yesterday. All in all the Aussie is facing some major challenges.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM)

6.4%

4.7%

-21.2%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.2%

0.4%

-0.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 05	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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