AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0368 to start out the new week. Chinese eco data (see below) continues to weigh on the Aussie economy, although the prospects of stimulus from the PBoC is becoming more likely which would be supportive of the AUD.

Today’s eco release showed that home loans declined again this month, printing at -1.0%, when forecasted at 0.1%.

As the US dollar weakened on Friday, after the release of the nonfarm payroll data, increasing the probability of fed stimulus on the 13th, the Aussie was able to climb back from its recent lows.

This week will once again center on central banks, as the much awaited FOMC meeting is on the 12-13th which Mr. Bernanke’s address on the 13th. At this time odds are over 66% that the FOMC will introduce some sort of stimulus as suggested in Mr. Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address.

also strengthening the AUD was the announcement on Thursday that the ECB would buy bonds from weaker eurozone economies, providing financial support and helping to lower their borrowing costs.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

 

0.39T 

 

0.77T 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-0.9%

 

-1.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

0.9%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

26.66B

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Exports (YoY) 

2.70%

 

3.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

1.0% 

 

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.5%

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.9%

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

 

-5.7 

 

02:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.7B 

-42.9B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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