AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 10, 2012 4:09 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0368 to start out the new week. Chinese eco data (see below) continues to weigh on the Aussie economy, although the prospects of stimulus from the PBoC is becoming more likely which would be supportive of the AUD.

Today’s eco release showed that home loans declined again this month, printing at -1.0%, when forecasted at 0.1%.

As the US dollar weakened on Friday, after the release of the nonfarm payroll data, increasing the probability of fed stimulus on the 13th, the Aussie was able to climb back from its recent lows.

This week will once again center on central banks, as the much awaited FOMC meeting is on the 12-13th which Mr. Bernanke’s address on the 13th. At this time odds are over 66% that the FOMC will introduce some sort of stimulus as suggested in Mr. Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address.

also strengthening the AUD was the announcement on Thursday that the ECB would buy bonds from weaker eurozone economies, providing financial support and helping to lower their borrowing costs.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.34T	0.39T	0.77T
	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
	00:50	JPY	GDP Price Index (YoY)	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%
	00:50	JPY	Bank Lending (YoY)	0.9%		0.7%
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	26.66B	19.80B	25.10B
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Exports (YoY)	2.70%	3.00%	1.00%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	-1.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09