AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is pushing back towards the 1.05 level, trading this morning at 1.0470 after a morning of positive eco data. Housing starts in Oz, soared well above forecast, offsetting last month’s disappoint, registered in 4.6% when forecast was 2.00% while the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index also printed positive at 1.6% against a -2.50 in the last report.

With expectations of a supportive ruling by the German Constitutional Court on the use of the ESM and strong hopes for monetary stimulus from the US Fed, the Aussie has been able to gain momentum.

Also this morning the Chinese Premier pledged that China would meet its 2012 growth estimates, assuring markets that China was on the right track, alleviating worries on the AUD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 12

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (YoY) 

-1.8%

 

-1.9% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) 

4.6%

 

1.5% 

 

5.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.2% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.60%

 

 

 

-2.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Housing Starts (QoQ) 

4.60%

 

2.00% 

 

-7.80% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep.13 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1% 

0.3% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

365K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3318K 

3322K 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.4% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.5% 

 

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25% 

0.25% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-155.0B 

-69.6B 

Sep. 14

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2% 

-1.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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