AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 12, 2012 4:40 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is pushing back towards the 1.05 level, trading this morning at 1.0470 after a morning of positive eco data. Housing starts in Oz, soared well above forecast, offsetting last month’s disappoint, registered in 4.6% when forecast was 2.00% while the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index also printed positive at 1.6% against a -2.50 in the last report.

With expectations of a supportive ruling by the German Constitutional Court on the use of the ESM and strong hopes for monetary stimulus from the US Fed, the Aussie has been able to gain momentum.

Also this morning the Chinese Premier pledged that China would meet its 2012 growth estimates, assuring markets that China was on the right track, alleviating worries on the AUD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 12

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.1%

3.2%

3.1%

JPY

CGPI (YoY)

-1.8%

-1.9%

-2.1%

JPY

Core Machinery Orders (MoM)

4.6%

1.5%

5.6%

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

-0.8%

-0.4%

0.2%

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

1.60%

-2.50%

AUD

Housing Starts (QoQ)

4.60%

2.00%

-7.80%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep.13	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	365K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3318K	3322K
	13:30	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.4%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.5%
	17:30	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-155.0B	-69.6B
Sep. 14	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.2%	-1.2%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.6%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.5%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.7%	0.8%
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	0.6%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	74.1	74.3

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 13 00:30 Japan

Sep 13 09:10 Italy

Sep 13 09:30 UK

Sep 13 15:00 US

Sep 13 17:00 US

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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