AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0462 as the USD gathered strength now that the elation from the FOMC stimulus package has eased. Markets are once again returning to normal. China is the main focal point this week as weak data continues to flow. Chinese HSBC PMI is due tomorrow and should give a better picture of the economy. The government has vowed to reach its 2012 forecasts and has promised to implement the necessary plans to reach these goals, which could be a huge stimulus package.

Today the Bank of Japan announced additional easing steps to help jump start the Japanese economy.

The AUD weakened against the USD overnight as minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on September 4th were dovish in favor of a conditional easing bias.  Should growth in China continue to disappoint to the downside while the A$ remains strong, the RBA is signaling policy easing.  It noted that “The current assessment of the inflation outlook continued to provide scope to adjust policy in response to any significant deterioration in the outlook for growth.”  For now, the RBA is putting more weight upon a low unemployment rate and mining investment as signs of domestic strengths.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 19

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10 

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

   

Current Account

-1.80B

 

-1.64b

 

-1.07b

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 20

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.37T 

 

-0.33T 

 

 

 

03:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

 

47.60 

 

 

 

05:30

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

     

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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