AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD declined also following its cousins around the globe. The USD gained strength late yesterday after positive housing data in the US, with a day of limited data releases and light news. The AUD is trading at 1.0408

Also the BoJ stimulus package, which was positive for the markets, was quickly forgotten, even though stimulus in Japan is a positive factor for the AUD a major trading partner of Japan.

Overall the markets are reacting to worries out of China on poor eco data. Today the HSBC manufacturing PMI showed continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector. Traders were hoping for something more positive, after all the assistance and programs launched by the PBoC to stimulate growth.

Markets are slowly turning negative, as it seems that the global stimulus is not having the positive affect that was hoped, although traders all want instant gratification and stimulus plans help in the near term, but not overnight.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sept 20 

 

NZD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

1.0% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

 

-0.37T 

 

-0.37T 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

 

 

47.60 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

(only tier 3 regional data)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

Previous

 

 

Sept 21 

07:45

 

NZD

 

 

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

09:00

 

AUD

 

 

CB Leading Index (MoM) 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

12:00

 

NZD

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

20:30

 

INR

 

 

Indian FX Reserves, USD 

 

292.04B 

 

 

 

20:30

 

INR

 

 

Indian Bank Loan Growth 

 

16.70% 

 

 

 

23:30

 

USD

 

 

ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW) 

 

2.10% 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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