AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0299 and is continuing to decline. Comments from the RBA earlier were fairly supportive but showed worries over the Chinese and Japanese economies and their affect on the Aussie economy.

China continues to fight a ongoing slowdown and Japan does not seem to be able to revive its exports with the JPY so strong.

Today all market focus is on Mr. Bernanke and his Jackson Hole address, but immediately thereafter focus will turn to Spain, Greece and the ECB and there will be major pressure on the euro.

Miners stocks and commodities are falling to unexpected lows which is weighing on the Aussie.

The Australian dollar has dropped below the $US1.03 mark for the first time in five weeks, as falling iron ore prices stoke fears about the country’s resource-heavy economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 31

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Service Sector Output (MoM) 

0.70%

 

 

 

-0.20% 

   

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.0% 

 

-0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

GfK Consumer Confidence 

-29

 

-27 

 

-29 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.7

 

 

 

47.9 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

National Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Household Spending (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.2% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 03

00:00

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.4% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

00:00

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.5% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

 

 

1.0% 

 

-4.0% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

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