AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0299 and is continuing to decline. Comments from the RBA earlier were fairly supportive but showed worries over the Chinese and Japanese economies and their affect on the Aussie economy.
China continues to fight a ongoing slowdown and Japan does not seem to be able to revive its exports with the JPY so strong.
Today all market focus is on Mr. Bernanke and his Jackson Hole address, but immediately thereafter focus will turn to Spain, Greece and the ECB and there will be major pressure on the euro.
Miners stocks and commodities are falling to unexpected lows which is weighing on the Aussie.
The Australian dollar has dropped below the $US1.03 mark for the first time in five weeks, as falling iron ore prices stoke fears about the country’s resource-heavy economy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 31 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.3% |
|
0.5% |
|
1.4% |
||
|
|
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Service Sector Output (MoM) |
0.70% |
|
|
|
-0.20% |
||
|
|
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.6% |
|
-1.0% |
|
-0.6% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
|
-27 |
|
-29 |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
47.7 |
|
|
|
47.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
National Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.3% |
|
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Household Spending (YoY) |
1.7% |
|
1.2% |
|
1.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Private Sector Credit (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 03 |
00:00 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
|
|
1.4% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
00:00 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean CPI (MoM) |
|
|
0.5% |
|
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) |
|
|
1.0% |
|
-4.0% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
|
0.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
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