AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 03, 2012 5:04 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0274 as the Aussie continues its slide against the USD. With disappointing Chinese PMI data released this morning showing a contraction in manufacturing, below last month’s data and remaining below the all important 50 level. This was compounded by a surprising Retail Sales release in Oz, that showed a drop of 0.8% when forecasts were for an increase of 0.2%

After Mr. Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole the USD weakened against most crosses, but the on going growth problems in the Asian region, have overcome the weakness in the greenback created by the possibility of additional monetary easing in the US.

Markets will watch closely the RBA decision on Tuesday and the Employment Change report later in the week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03

KRW

South Korean CPI (YoY)

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

KRW

South Korean CPI (MoM)

0.4%

0.5%

-0.2%

JPY

Capital Spending

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

47.60

47.80

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 04	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.8%	1.3%
	14:00	CAD	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	5.0K	14.0K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.3%	5.2%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Sep. 07	15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI	58.0	62.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction

Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction

Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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