AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0192 falling to its lowest level in months, after negative eco data weighed on the Aussie. The GDP fell unexpectedly, markets were expecting a 0.7% print and the actual was 0.6%.

This combined with lackluster retails sales and jobs data pushed the currency down. Also new data released in China showed a dip in HSBC service PMI following an earlier fall in manufacturing PMI.

The possibility of Chinese and US stimulus will help the Aussie, but not until it is announced. At present the USD is down against most other crosses.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 05

00:01

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.10%

 

 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Services Index 

42.4

 

 

 

46.5 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

03:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

52.00

 

 

 

53.10 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

5.0K 

14.0K 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.30B 

0.01B 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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