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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Sep 10, 2016, 06:55 GMT+00:00

The AUD/USD dipped on the strength of the US dollar and a bit of disappointing data from China after CPI printed lower than forecast. Although Chinese

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

The AUD/USD dipped on the strength of the US dollar and a bit of disappointing data from China after CPI printed lower than forecast. Although Chinese exports and imports were better than expected. The Aussie is trading 0.7541 and is expected to hold this range this week. After rallying earlier in the week in response to upbeat Chinese trade figures and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to leave interest rates on hold, the Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a fairly dramatic tumble before the weekend.

A rebound in the dollar after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the US central bank increasingly faces risks if it waits much longer to hike rates added to pressure on gold on Friday. Growing speculation that the Fed would stand pat on interest rates after hiking for the first time in nearly a decade in December have helped push gold 26% higher this year.

Expectations for further policy divergence between the US and the Eurozone were dampened after the European Central Bank (ECB) held off signaling a move towards further policy easing at a meeting on Thursday.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous Consensus
9/13/2016 GBP Core Consumer Price Index 3 1.3 1.4
9/13/2016 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.6 0.7
9/13/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/13/2016 EUR ZEW Survey – Economic 3 4.6 6.7
9/14/2016 NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3 2.8
9/15/2016 AUD Employment Change 3 26.2 15
9/15/2016 AUD Unemployment Rate 3 5.7 5.7
9/15/2016 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.75 -0.75
9/15/2016 CHF SNB press conference 3
9/15/2016 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 3 435 435
9/15/2016 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 3 0.25 0.25
9/15/2016 GBP Monetary Policy Summary 3
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 3 9 0
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 3 0 9
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 3 0 0
9/15/2016 GBP Bank of England Minutes 3
9/15/2016 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 3 0 0
9/16/2016 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.8 1
9/16/2016 USD Consumer Price Index ECORE 3 2.2 2.2
9/16/2016 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 12 11:30 Germany Eur 2bn Mar 2017 Bubill

Sep 12 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 14

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

 

 

 

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