AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 03:43 UTC

The AUD/USD dipped 13 points to 0.7587 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates and policy in the morning session. CNBC reported that the

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The AUD/USD dipped 13 points to 0.7587 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates and policy in the morning session. CNBC reported that the Australian dollar was up 0.07 percent after dropping close to 1.8 percent at one point in the Wednesday session following fresh probability of monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia after inflation unexpectedly fell.

Ray Attrill, global co-head of foreign exchange strategy at the National Australia Bank, said following the drop in consumer price index on Wednesday, the bank now expects “a 25 basis points reduction in the Cash Rate to 1.75 percent” when the RBA meets next week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25 percent. In its monetary policy statement, the central bank said the global growth outlook had deteriorated due to weakness in China and other emerging markets. The bank expects local inflation to strengthen as “effects of low oil prices drop out and as capacity pressures gradually build.”

The Aussie suffered a slump of more than 2 per cent since figures were released yesterday showing consumer prices went backwards in the first quarter – the first quarterly fall since December 2008.

Before the inflation data was published, the market was pricing in an 11 per cent chance of an interest rate cut at the RBA’s May board meeting.

That jumped to 50 per cent once the figures came out, and has since climbed to 57 per cent. The Reserve Bank last cut interest rates in May 2015, to the historically low level of 2 per cent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)		5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)		4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)		6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343