AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – August 30. 2016

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Published: Aug 29, 2016, 04:41 UTC

The AUD/USD is down 13 points at 0.7551 as the greenback rallied. There has been little data in Australia and the RBA has been quiet since early last

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – August 30. 2016

The AUD/USD is down 13 points at 0.7551 as the greenback rallied. There has been little data in Australia and the RBA has been quiet since early last week. While Janet Yellen’s speech indicated that rate increases were data sensitive but data so far has been positive and support a rate increase in the near term, while comments shortly after by Stanley Fischer indicated that both a September and December rate increase were possible. Neither indicated the size of the increase being considered.

This morning speculators remained cautious, however. The odds of a hike in September rose to 30 per cent following the comments from 21 per cent on Thursday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Markets were pricing in a 60.2 per cent chance of a hike in December, up from 51.8 per cent on Thursday.

There isn’t much in the way of Australian data this week but a speech on Tuesday by Asst. Governor Debelle on Tuesday could spark some volatility. Most moves this week will be ahead of the US jobs report due on Tuesday.

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August 30, 2016

Country	Event	Volatility	Previous
NZD	Building Permits s.a	2	16.3
JPY	Unemployment Rate	2	3.1
JPY	Jobs/applicants ratio	2	1.37
JPY	Overall Household Spending	2	-2.2
JPY	Large Retailer’s Sales	2	-1.5
JPY	Retail Trade s.a	2	0.2
JPY	Retail Trade	2	-1.4
CHF	KOF Leading Indicator	2	102.7
GBP	Consumer Credit	2	1.837
GBP	Mortgage Approvals	2	64.766
EUR	Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices	2	0.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index	2	0.3
EUR	Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices	2	0.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index	2	0.4
CAD	Current Account	2	-16.8
USD	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices	2	5.2
USD	Consumer Confidence	2	97.3