AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 8, 2016

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Published: Feb 5, 2016, 05:49 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD tumbled 14 points to 0.7186 after retail sales printed much lower than expected. The total value of retail sales

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 8, 2016

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD tumbled 14 points to 0.7186 after retail sales printed much lower than expected. The total value of retail sales in Australia was flat in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, worth A$24.759 billion.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent, which would have been unchanged from the November reading. For the fourth quarter of 2015, retail sales added 0.6 percent to A$72.062 billion.

That also missed expectations for an increase of 0.9 percent, although it was unchanged from the three months prior.

The construction sector in Australia remained in contraction in January, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 46.3. That’s down from 46.8 in December, and it moves farther beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, apartment building, commercial construction and engineering construction all contracted – while house building expanded for the second straight month.

The Australian dollar dropped as much as 0.3 per cent to 0.7176 following the data, but this response may have been complicated by the simultaneous release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statement on Monetary Policy, where the central bank has trimmed its 2017 GDP forecast by 0.25 percentage points and guided towards lower inflation by the end of June this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)	0.0%	0.5%	0.4%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)		190K	292K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Jan)		5.0%	5.0%
CAD	Employment Change (Jan)		5.5K	22.8K
CAD	Ivey PMI (Jan)		50.0	49.9