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AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD added 18 points supported by additional stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China. The US dollar strength this

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD added 18 points supported by additional stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China. The US dollar strength this morning limited gains. The escalating price of oil ore helped the Aussie print a bit stronger. China is now on holiday for the week removing some volatility from the market place.  The iron ore price jumped more than seven per cent last week as the impact of supply disruptions flows through the market.

In good news for miners that are struggling to contain costs in the face of an 18-month bear market, the price now has not fallen for the past eight sessions.

Last week’s fall in the US dollar also made it cheaper for traders to buy iron ore, which is priced in US dollars.

But over the longer term, concerns over slowing Chinese demand and a supply glut could continue to put pressure on the iron ore price. The World Bank recently forecast the commodity would trade at an average $US42 a tonne this year.

With China and New Zealand on holiday trading is expected to be light this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    China – Lunar New Year
    New Zealand – Waitangi
  JPY Adjusted Current Account  1.64T   1.42T  
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Dec)  0.96T 0.987T 1.144T

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)     -2.7%  
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)   0.4% 0.1%  
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)     3  
  EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)   0.4% -0.3%  
  EUR German Trade Balance (Dec)   20.2B 19.7B  
  GBP Trade Balance (Dec)   -10.35B -10.64B  
  GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec)   -2.55B -2.45B  
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)   5.400M 5.431M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction

Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction

Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction

Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17

Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz

Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

 

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