AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 20-24, 2012 Forecast

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Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD lost some strength this week ending at 1.0418. The Australian dollar is higher on comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the region’s debt crisis. Mrs. Merkel said she supported the idea of the ECB coming to the aid of ailing euro zone countries. However, there would be several events in Europe to influence the market next week. The Greek prime minister (Antonis Samaras) is meeting with the president of the euro zone group (Jean-Claude Juncker), as well as Angela Merkel and the French president (Francois Hollande) later on in the week.

Let’s face it the commodity currencies are watching for China, after comments from the Premier, markets are waiting PBoC stimulus which will be a boost to the entire Asian-Pacific Rim. Also a stronger US weighed on the Aussie this week

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 17, 2012

1.0418

1.0523

1.0525

1.0411

-1.01%

Aug 16, 2012

1.0524

1.0494

1.0529

1.0475

0.29%

Aug 15, 2012

1.0494

1.0487

1.0514

1.0455

0.07%

Aug 14, 2012

1.0487

1.0512

1.0541

1.0478

-0.24%

Aug 13, 2012

1.0512

1.0552

1.0574

1.0497

-0.38%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of August 13-17, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug 13

22:45

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

0.9%

1.0%

-1.4%

Aug 14

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

0.4%

-0.8%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

0.3%

-0.7%

Aug 15

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

 

Aug 16

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.81M

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

366K

365K

364K

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-4.7

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

0.6%

-0.2%

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.6

72.5

72.3

 

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Aug 21

1:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 
 

3:00

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

2.4%

 

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.30T

Aug 22

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.8%

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Aug 23

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

366K

 

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.4

 

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

350K

 

23:30

AUD

RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

 

Aug 24

0:00

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

-1.1%

 

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

1.6%

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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