AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 20-24, 2012 Forecast

Posted August 18, 2012 14:30 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD lost some strength this week ending at 1.0418. The Australian dollar is higher on comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the region’s debt crisis. Mrs. Merkel said she supported the idea of the ECB coming to the aid of ailing euro zone countries. However, there would be several events in Europe to influence the market next week. The Greek prime minister (Antonis Samaras) is meeting with the president of the euro zone group (Jean-Claude Juncker), as well as Angela Merkel and the French president (Francois Hollande) later on in the week.

Let’s face it the commodity currencies are watching for China, after comments from the Premier, markets are waiting PBoC stimulus which will be a boost to the entire Asian-Pacific Rim. Also a stronger US weighed on the Aussie this week

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Aug 17, 2012	1.0418	1.0523	1.0525	1.0411	-1.01%
Aug 16, 2012	1.0524	1.0494	1.0529	1.0475	0.29%
Aug 15, 2012	1.0494	1.0487	1.0514	1.0455	0.07%
Aug 14, 2012	1.0487	1.0512	1.0541	1.0478	-0.24%
Aug 13, 2012	1.0512	1.0552	1.0574	1.0497	-0.38%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of August 13-17, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Aug 13	22:45	NZD	Core Retail Sales q/q	0.9%	1.0%	-1.4%
Aug 14	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.8%	0.4%	-0.8%
	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m	0.8%	0.3%	-0.7%
Aug 15	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
Aug 16	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.81M	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	366K	365K	364K
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-7.1	-4.7	-12.9
	22:45	NZD	PPI Input q/q	0.6%	-0.2%	0.3%
Aug 17	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	73.6	72.5	72.3

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 21	1:30	AUD	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	3:00	NZD	Inflation Expectations q/q	2.4%
	23:50	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.30T
Aug 22	0:30	AUD	MI Leading Index m/m	0.8%
	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.37M
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Aug 23	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	366K
	13:00	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI	51.4
	14:00	USD	New Home Sales	350K
	23:30	AUD	RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Aug 24	0:00	AUD	CB Leading Index m/m	0.4%
	12:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	-1.1%
	12:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders m/m	1.6%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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