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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 25-29, 2016 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Jan 23, 2016, 08:55 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD added 6 points to close the week above the 70 level as traders breathed a sigh of relief after oil prices

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 25-29, 2016 -Forecast

audusd weekly bnsnla
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD added 6 points to close the week above the 70 level as traders breathed a sigh of relief after oil prices gained helping the global commodities market and commodity linked currencies. The Aussie is trading at 0.7006. The Australian dollar has closed higher after Europe’s central bank bolstered global risk sentiment with hints of further possible economic stimulus.

ECB president Mario Draghi said the central bank would review its monetary policy stance as early as March. This has increased prospects of further economic stimulus in Europe, Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said. He said as a result, equity markets rallied on improved global sentiment.

“The Aussie dollar is definitely benefiting from a more upbeat global mood following the bounce in European, US and local equities,” he said. “The ECB has provided reason for that optimism.

“The bounce in oil overnight has also supported the Aussie because it is good for our liquefied natural gas exports.” He said the Aussie dollar has been closely tracking equity movements this year.

The lift in the Australian dollar followed a “text book rise” in riskier currencies including the New Zealand and Canadian dollars.

The three currencies were also supported by a major liquidity injection of more than 400 billion yuan into its financial system on Thursday, the most in three years, Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior currency strategist Joseph Capurso said.

“Two central banks from large economies easing their monetary or financial policies are supportive for currencies linked to global economic conditions,” he said.

“All three currencies are tracking over 1 per cent above their recent lows.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week:

 

 

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Monday, January 25, 2016

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index

 

108.4

108.7

 

 

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

 

 

Holiday

Australia – Australia Day

 

  USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

 

96.5

96.5

 

 

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q4)

 

0.3%

0.5%

 

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Dec)

 

500K

490K

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

3.979M

 

 

Thursday, January 28, 2016

 

  NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

 

2.50%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q4)

 

1.9%

2.1%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

 

0.5%

0.4%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

 

-0.2%

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

 

0.7%

-0.9%

 

 

Friday, January 29, 2016

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Jan)

 

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

 

0.8%

2.0%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.2%

 

   

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jan 25 11:30 Germany EUR 1.5bn Jan 2017 Bubill

Jan 25 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jan 27

Jan 25 17:20 Italy Details of BTP/CCTeus on 28 Jan

Jan 26 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ/linker bond auction

Jan 26 n/a US Holds 2-year note auction

Jan 27 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jan 27 11:30 Germany EUR 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Jan 27 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on 03 Feb

Jan 27 n/a US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Jan 27 n/a US Holds 5-year note auction

Jan 28 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Jan 28 11:10 Italy Holds BTP/CCTeus auction

Jan 28 n/a US Holds 7-year note auction

Feb 02 n/a UK Details of Gilt auctions on Feb 09 & 11

 

 

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