AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 16-20, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week at 1.0227 after the USD eased back a bit in strength and investors were able to move to commodity currencies. The AUD gained 0.96% on Friday

The Aussie weakened after disappointing employment reports showed that payrolls declined by 27,000 in June after economists predicted an increase. The Aussie had gained the day before after the Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed that a few policy makers believed further easing was necessary to bolster growth in the U.S

Australian markets will be exceptionally quiet next week.  The latest Chinese economic data are encouraging for Australian businesses. China has successfully slowed its economy to a more sustainable growth rate. Now the challenge is to lift momentum, but not so far as to reignite inflation. As expected, the Australian dollar slid, on Friday afternoon in reaction to China’s dismal second quarter 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) growth performance.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 13, 2012

1.0227

1.0130

1.0231

1.0123

0.96%

Jul 12, 2012

1.0130

1.0247

1.0252

1.0101

-1.15%

Jul 11, 2012

1.0248

1.0186

1.0281

1.0179

0.60%

Jul 10, 2012

1.0187

1.0205

1.0245

1.0161

-0.18%

Jul 09, 2012

1.0205

1.0196

1.0213

1.0155

0.09%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 9

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

-1.2%

 

-2.6%

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

0.3%

 

1.7%

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

-4

 

13

Jul 10

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

-2

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

0.7%

0.2%

-0.2%

Jul 11

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

0.3%

AUD

Home Loans m/m

-1.2%

0.8%

0.5%

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

-48.5B

-50.6B

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

-1.3M

-4.3M

Jul 12

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

2.3%

 

AUD

Employment Change

-27.0K

0.2K

27.8K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

JPY

Overnight Call Rate

<0.10%

<0.10%

<0.10%

USD

Unemployment Claims

350K

376K

376K

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

-1.5%

-1.2%

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

-91.7B

-124.6B

Jul 13

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

-0.5%

-1.0%

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

73.5

73.2


Historical:

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9126 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.6007 USD Oct 27, 2008

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 16

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

2.3

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.4%

22:45

NZD

CPI q/q

0.5%

Jul 17

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

2.4%

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

 

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

25.6B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.0%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%

Jul 18

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.5%

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

1:30

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

-1

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

1:30

AUD

Import Prices q/q

-1.2%

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.