AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD had an incredible week, reaching above the 1.04 price on strong eco data and reports. A report showed that Australia in its 21 year history has never had a recession. Also positive comments from RBA Stevens, helped push the Aussie to big numbers. On Friday as the US garnered strength against almost all of its trading partners (see below chart)
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jul 20, 2012 |
1.0378 |
1.0423 |
1.0426 |
1.0363 |
-0.43% |
|
Jul 19, 2012 |
1.0423 |
1.0360 |
1.0444 |
1.0360 |
0.61% |
|
Jul 18, 2012 |
1.0360 |
1.0316 |
1.0373 |
1.0289 |
0.43% |
|
Jul 17, 2012 |
1.0316 |
1.0239 |
1.0319 |
1.0235 |
0.74% |
|
Jul 16, 2012 |
1.0240 |
1.0235 |
1.0260 |
1.0203 |
0.05% |
The Aussie declined falling to 1.0378, having added over 0.0138 for the week. The Aussie is facing a busy week with region eco releases which are expected to support the currency.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
|
|
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
NZD |
CPI q/q |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Jul 17 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
2.3% |
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
CPI m/m |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
0.77M |
0.78M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
0.74M |
0.71M |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.8M |
0.5M |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
367K |
352K |
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.37M |
4.64M |
4.62M |
|
|
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
-7.9 |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
AUD |
Import Prices q/q |
2.4% |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9126 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.6007 USD Oct 27, 2008
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 23 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-0.3% |
|
|
Jul 24 |
13:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
|
|
22:45 |
NZD |
301M |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
-0.66T |
||
|
Jul 25 |
0:00 |
AUD |
-1.4% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.1% |
||
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.3% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
369K |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
2.50% |
||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
|||
|
Jul 26 |
0:10 |
JPY |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.7% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
5.9% |
||
|
23:30 |
JPY |
-0.6% |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
3.6% |
||
|
Jul 27 |
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.0 |
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