AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD had an incredible week, reaching above the 1.04 price on strong eco data and reports. A report showed that Australia in its 21 year history has never had a recession. Also positive comments from RBA Stevens, helped push the Aussie to big numbers. On Friday as the US garnered strength against almost all of its trading partners (see below chart)

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 20, 2012

1.0378

1.0423

1.0426

1.0363

-0.43%

Jul 19, 2012

1.0423

1.0360

1.0444

1.0360

0.61%

Jul 18, 2012

1.0360

1.0316

1.0373

1.0289

0.43%

Jul 17, 2012

1.0316

1.0239

1.0319

1.0235

0.74%

Jul 16, 2012

1.0240

1.0235

1.0260

1.0203

0.05%

The Aussie declined falling to 1.0378, having added over 0.0138 for the week. The Aussie is facing a busy week with region eco releases which are expected to support the currency.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 16

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

0.1%

-0.4%

 

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

0.1%

-0.2%

 

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

3.9

2.3

 

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

 

NZD

CPI q/q

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

Jul 17

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

2.3%

 

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

 

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

45.7B

27.2B

 

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

79.2%

78.7%

 

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

0.4%

-0.2%

Jul 18

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.8%

 

0.5%

 

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

0.77M

0.78M

 

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.74M

0.71M

 

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-0.8M

0.5M

-4.7M

Jul 19

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

-2

 

-1

 

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

367K

352K

 

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

4.64M

4.62M

 

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

-7.9

-16.6

Jul 20

AUD

Import Prices q/q

2.4%

1.6%

-1.2%

Historical:

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9126 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.6007 USD Oct 27, 2008

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 23

1:30

AUD

PPI q/q

-0.3%

Jul 24

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.5

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance

301M

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.66T

Jul 25

0:00

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

-1.4%

1:30

AUD

CPI q/q

0.1%

1:30

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

0.3%

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

369K

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

21:00

NZD

Official Cash Rate

2.50%

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

 

Jul 26

0:10

JPY

BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks

 

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.7%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

5.9%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

3.6%

Jul 27

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1.9%

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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