AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 9-13, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week just a bit lower then it opened the prior Monday. With risk aversion back in the markets and the USD back to being the favorite safe haven, the Aussie was fighting a losing battle. The AUD closed the week at 1.0212

Midweek the Aussie was able to gain on strong retail sales as the USD was weak; it was the disappointing trade balance and the negative data from China that weakened the AUD

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 06, 2012

1.0212

1.0281

1.0289

1.0180

-0.67%

Jul 05, 2012

1.0281

1.0265

1.0328

1.0243

0.16%

Jul 04, 2012

1.0265

1.0284

1.0320

1.0262

-0.18%

Jul 03, 2012

1.0284

1.0235

1.0296

1.0230

0.47%

Jul 02, 2012

1.0236

1.0238

1.0278

1.0215

-0.02%

This coming week brings some much awaited eco data from China as well as some tier two data from Oz. There might be some action here, except that the USD is remaining strong.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of July 2 – 6 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 2

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

52.1

53.5

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

27.3%

5.1%

-7.6%

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

-0.8%

0.6%

0.2%

Jul 3

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.7%

0.1%

-0.7%

AUD

AIG Services Index

48.8

 

43.5

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

0.3%

0.1%

Jul 4

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.29B

-0.51B

-0.03B

Jul 5

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

103K

136K

USD

Unemployment Claims

374K

385K

388K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

53.1

53.7

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

-1.6M

-0.1M

Jul 6

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

97K

77K

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

8.2%

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

Historical:

Highest: 1.1080USDon Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9126 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.6007USD Oct 27, 2008

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 9

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

-2.4%

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

13

Jul 10

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-2

10th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

1.7%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

-0.3%

Jul 11

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

0.3%

1:30

AUD

Home Loans m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

2.3%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change

38.9K

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.