AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 6 – 10, 2013 Forecast

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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 6 - 10, 2013 Forecast

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 6 - 10, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD traded in a tight range, ahead of this week’s RBA meeting. The currency ended the week at 1.0259 after the US dollar soared on Friday after a strong jobs data release. Chinese PMI numbers weighed on the Asian Pacific region, printing lackluster, questioning the actual strength of China’s rebound. . The RBA may provide a more interesting risk to the A$, however, in that consensus is somewhat divided on whether or not to expect a rate cut next Tuesday. A minority of 8 shops within Bloomberg’s consensus of 29 estimates expect a 25bps cut in the 3% cash target rate, while the rest expect no change. That will be preceded by Monday’s retail sales figures which are expected to come in flat following a large gain in February. Australian trade and jobs figures also land in an active week for A$ risk, and consensus expects improvements on both fronts with a move back toward a balanced trade account accompanied by some recovery from the 36,000 jobs lost in March.

Date

Rate

29/04/2013

1.0281

30/04/2013

1.0353

01/05/2013

1.0360

02/05/2013

1.0288

03/05/2013

1.0259

 

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of April 29 – May 3 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Apr. 29 

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

 

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

0.7%

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

1.5%

1.0%

-1.0%

 

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

-9.1%

2.0%

4.4%

Apr. 30 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

 

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.3%

0.6%

-2.3%

 

USD

Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

 

USD

Chicago PMI 

49.0

52.5

52.4

 

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

68.1

60.8

61.9

May 01 

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

4.2%

 

-5.3%

 

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

50.60

51.00

50.90

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

119K

150K

131K

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.7

50.9

51.3

 

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

May 02 

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-5.5%

1.3%

3.0%

 

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.40

50.60

50.50

 

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

0.7%

1.2%

-1.7%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-38.8B

-42.0B

-43.6B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

324K

345K

342K

 

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

0.5%

0.7%

4.4%

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3019K

3028K

3007K

May 03

AUD

PPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

165K

145K

138K

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.6

34.6

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

176K

160K

154K

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.1

54.0

54.4

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 AUDUSD 0504W

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

May 06

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

1.3%

 

23:45

NZD

Labor Cost Index (QoQ) 

0.5%

0.5%

May 07

02:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) 

2.00%

1.60%

 

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

 

-0.18B

 

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

3.00%

May 08

03:00

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

-0.88B

 

23:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.8%

-1.0%

May 09

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

12.0K

-36.1K

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

2.1%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

-1.9%

 

02:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.9%

 May 10

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

85.5B

-107.0B

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

May 06 11:00 Norway

May 07 09:15 Austria

May 07 14:30 UK Details

May 07 15:30 Italy

May 07 17:00 US

May 08 09:30 Germany

May 08 09:30 Swiss

May 08 09:30 UK

May 08 14:30 Sweden

May 08 15:30 Italy

May 08 17:00 US

May 09 08:30 Spain

May 09 17:00 US

May 10 09:10 Italy

May 10 09:10 Norway

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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