AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 13, 2012 8:41 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0233 up a few pips. The Aussie toughened against many major peers out of 16 this week after iron ore prices jumped to the maximum in over two months. A report showcased that unemployment claims in U.S. slipped to the lowest since 2008 February. Today, the figures may show that confidence in the greatest economy of the world stayed close to the toughest level from May.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 12, 2012	1.0233	1.0256	1.0290	1.0217	-0.22%
Oct 11, 2012	1.0256	1.0221	1.0294	1.0219	0.34%
Oct 10, 2012	1.0221	1.0189	1.0263	1.0185	0.32%
Oct 09, 2012	1.0188	1.0213	1.0247	1.0175	-0.24%
Oct 08, 2012	1.0213	1.0171	1.0219	1.0150	0.41%

Markets await data out of China over the weekend that could have a major effect on the Aussie. Singapore’s central bank surprised markets by sounding more upbeat on its economy than many had feared, enough to skip a chance to ease policy. Singapore also managed to dodge a technical recession with upward revisions to growth, which combined to lift the Singapore dollar while knocking the US dollar down across the board.

The currency has also been supported this week by an 11 percent increase in spot prices for iron ore, Australia’s top export commodity. Dealers were already turning their focus to a raft of Chinese economic data due in coming days, starting with trade figures on Saturday and culminating with gross domestic product next Thursday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	NZD	NZIER Business Confidence	8		-4
Oct. 09	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.72T	0.52T	0.34T
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	0		-3
Oct. 10	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	1.00%		1.60%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.700%		1.764%
Oct. 11	AUD	Employment Change	14.5K	3.8K	-9.1K
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.1%
	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-44.0B	-42.5B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	339K	370K	369K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3273K	3275K	3288K
Oct. 12	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%	-1.9%
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.7%
	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.1%	1.8%	2.0%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.5%	2.5%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	83.1	78.0	78.3
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	75.0B	42.0B	-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	01:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)		-1.0%
	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)		-1.3%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.5%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-5.0	-10.4
	22:45	NZD	CPI (QoQ)	0.6%	0.3%
Oct. 16	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.810M	0.801M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.770M	0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia

Oct 15 10:00 Norway

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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