AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 9:44 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD followed all of Asia downward on Friday after the USD gained momentum on a sizable drop in the unemployment rate, falling to its lowest rate in 44 months at 7.8% when markets expected an increase to 8.2%. The Aussie closed the week at 1.0183

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	1.0183	1.0240	1.0275	1.0153	-0.56%
Oct 04, 2012	1.0240	1.0230	1.0273	1.0182	0.09%
Oct 03, 2012	1.0231	1.0254	1.0257	1.0197	-0.22%
Oct 02, 2012	1.0254	1.0361	1.0376	1.0252	-1.03%
Oct 01, 2012	1.0361	1.0351	1.0402	1.0327	0.08%

Australia’s trade deficit widened to A$2.03 billion in August from a revised A$1.53 billion shortfall between exports and imports a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

That was worse than the expected A$685 million deficit, and added to the negative sentiment about Australia’s economy after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the target cash rate a quarter-point to 3.25 percent this week. The Australian dollar has shed 1.4 percent since the RBA announced its cut

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-3	-3	-1
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.25%	3.50%	3.50%
Oct. 03	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%		-5.6%
	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.03B	-0.70B	-1.53B
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	6.4%	4.7%	-21.2%
	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	-0.8%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Unemployment Rate	7.8%	8.2%	8.1%
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	22:00	NZD	NZIER Business Confidence		-4
Oct. 09	01:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		-2
Oct. 11	01:30	AUD	Employment Change	3.8K	-8.8K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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