AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD followed all of Asia downward on Friday after the USD gained momentum on a sizable drop in the unemployment rate, falling to its lowest rate in 44 months at 7.8% when markets expected an increase to 8.2%. The Aussie closed the week at 1.0183

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 05, 2012

1.0183

1.0240

1.0275

1.0153

-0.56%

Oct 04, 2012

1.0240

1.0230

1.0273

1.0182

0.09%

Oct 03, 2012

1.0231

1.0254

1.0257

1.0197

-0.22%

Oct 02, 2012

1.0254

1.0361

1.0376

1.0252

-1.03%

Oct 01, 2012

1.0361

1.0351

1.0402

1.0327

0.08%

Australia’s trade deficit widened to A$2.03 billion in August from a revised A$1.53 billion shortfall between exports and imports a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

That was worse than the expected A$685 million deficit, and added to the negative sentiment about Australia’s economy after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the target cash rate a quarter-point to 3.25 percent this week. The Australian dollar has shed 1.4 percent since the RBA announced its cut

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-3

-3 

-1 

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

51.5

49.7 

49.6 

 Oct. 02

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

3.50% 

3.50% 

Oct. 03

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

-5.6% 

 

AUD

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

-0.70B 

-1.53B 

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

143K 

189K 

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

55.1

53.2 

53.7 

Oct. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

6.4%

4.7% 

-21.2% 

 

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

367K

370K 

363K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3281K

3271K 

3281K 

Oct. 05

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10% 

0.10% 

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

113K 

142K 

 

USD

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

8.2% 

8.1% 

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4 

34.4 

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

130K 

97K 

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 08

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

 

-4

Oct. 09

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

-2

Oct. 11

01:30

AUD

Employment Change 

3.8K

-8.8K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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