AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD had a busy week, between local data and global central banks the pair were rocked back and forth most of the week. The Australian dollar shrugged off weaker-than-expected trade data to hold on to a half-a-US-cent gain made in the wake of a key announcement from Europe’s central bank.

Jobs data in OZ was positive this week and most eco data has been fairly supportive, it is China that is weigh the most on the AUD. This weekend all the data for last month will be released, with hopes that China manufacturing and production will show that the government’s efforts have met with positive results, but the Peoples government seems to be preparing markets for a massive stimulus policy if data prints poor.

The AUD closed the week out strong at 1.0387 after the US dollar tanked on hoes of US stimulus this week.

The Australian trade balance widened to ‐A556m (beyond expectations of  -A300m). The details are disappointing, with both exports and imports falling suggesting that the economy is struggling on several fronts. In addition, exports to China fell 14% from their record high in June; the only encouraging detail was a month‐over‐month increase in exports to most other Asian economies. The recent dramatic drop in iron ore prices is likely to put additional pressure on the Australian trade balance and any further declines will weigh on AUD

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium