AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD had a busy week, between local data and global central banks the pair were rocked back and forth most of the week. The Australian dollar shrugged off weaker-than-expected trade data to hold on to a half-a-US-cent gain made in the wake of a key announcement from Europe’s central bank.

Jobs data in OZ was positive this week and most eco data has been fairly supportive, it is China that is weigh the most on the AUD. This weekend all the data for last month will be released, with hopes that China manufacturing and production will show that the government’s efforts have met with positive results, but the Peoples government seems to be preparing markets for a massive stimulus policy if data prints poor.

The AUD closed the week out strong at 1.0387 after the US dollar tanked on hoes of US stimulus this week.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 07, 2012

1.0387

1.0282

1.0400

1.0277

1.02%

Sep 06, 2012

1.0282

1.0190

1.0300

1.0170

0.90%

Sep 05, 2012

1.0190

1.0207

1.0221

1.0167

-0.18%

Sep 04, 2012

1.0208

1.0239

1.0287

1.0206

-0.30%

Sep 03, 2012

1.0239

1.0271

1.0276

1.0232

-0.32%

The Australian trade balance widened to ‐A556m (beyond expectations of  -A300m). The details are disappointing, with both exports and imports falling suggesting that the economy is struggling on several fronts. In addition, exports to China fell 14% from their record high in June; the only encouraging detail was a month‐over‐month increase in exports to most other Asian economies. The recent dramatic drop in iron ore prices is likely to put additional pressure on the Australian trade balance and any further declines will weigh on AUD

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 03

00:50

JPY

Capital Spending 

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

 

02:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

 

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

Sep. 04

02:30

AUD

Current Account 

-11.8B

-12.2B

-13.0B

 

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6

50.0

49.8

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.7%

1.4%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

 Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

-8.8K

5.0K

11.7K

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

140K

173K

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

370K

377K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

3315K

3328K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.56B

-0.30B

-0.23B

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

125K

141K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

138K

162K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

02:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

1.3% 

Sep. 11

00:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

 

-5.7 

 

02:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B 

-42.9B 

Sep. 12 

01:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

 

-2.50% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.3% 

-0.6% 

 

22:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50% 

2.50% 

Sep. 14

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.


include_once( __DIR__ . "/request_context.php");