AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD climbed from the 1.03 price to top out the week above the 1.06 level, surprising traders who did not expect the Aussie to break the 1.06 price. The Aussie rallied to a fresh one-month high amid optimism about a new stimulus package in the US its highest level in more than a month. 

The currency rallied more than one US cent early this morning after the US Federal Reserve announced an open-ended scheme to buy $40 billion ($38.39 billion) worth of mortgage-backed securities a month. It said the program would continue until the country’s economy improved and its flagging jobs market strengthened. 

Despite growing concerns about a Chinese slowdown as the eurozone debt crisis lingers and falling domestic retail sales, the RBA today left rates steady at 3.5 per cent.

But most economists are forecasting the RBA will lower rates in November as the global slowdown starts to hit harder.

The markets have priced in about 100 points in further cuts before this cycle ends in late 2013 – but most economists believe that is based on an overly negative outlook for a recovery in Europe.

In a statement, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said that with economic growth running at close to trend and “low” unemployment levels there was no need to cut rates.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and US

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy