AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 24-28, 2012 Forecast

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Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week down after starting at 1.0535. The Aussie ended Friday at 1.0456. The Australian dollar was buoyed by the latest wave of risk appetite and pushed above the 1.0500 level versus the greenback to hit a weekly high of 1.0517 during the European session. However, the pair lacked momentum and despite a fresh attempt early American trade, it failed to sustain gains above the psychological level. 

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 21, 2012

1.0456

1.0434

1.0519

1.0432

0.21%

Sep 20, 2012

1.0434

1.0470

1.0474

1.0368

-0.34%

Sep 19, 2012

1.0470

1.0452

1.0497

1.0418

0.17%

Sep 18, 2012

1.0452

1.0475

1.0487

1.0410

-0.22%

Sep 17, 2012

1.0475

1.0535

1.0547

1.0455

-0.58%

Asian markets will put Japan’s troubled economy into the spotlight and may therefore result in thank you cards coming from Europe.  Economic weakness in China continues to weigh on the Aussie. China releases the final print on the private sector version of its manufacturing PMI in the wake of the continued deterioration in the preliminary ‘flash’ reading that was released this past week. Stimulus from the BoJ and the PBoC are helping to support the AUD, which depends on both countries for exports. The additional stimulus should help bump up the Aussies economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 17-21, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 17

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-10.4

-2.0

-5.8

Sep. 18

USD

Current Account 

-117.4B

-125.5B

-133.6B

 

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

67.0B

45.3B

9.3B

 

NZD

Current Account 

-1.80B

-1.64B

-1.07B

Sep. 19

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

 

USD

Building Permits 

0.803M

0.796M

0.811M

 

USD

Housing Starts 

0.750M

0.765M

0.733M

 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.82M

4.55M

4.47M

 

NZD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.3%

1.0%

Sep. 20

JPY

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

-0.37T

-0.37T

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

375K

385K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

3300K

3304K

 

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

-4.0

-7.1

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 25 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

62.0 

60.6 

 

23:45

NZD

Trade Balance 

-606M 

15M 

Sep. 27

23:45

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

 

2.0% 

Sep. 28 

00:30

JPY

Unemployment Rate 

4.3% 

4.3% 

 

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3% 

-0.5% 

 

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5% 

-1.0% 

 

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.2% 

-0.8% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 24 09:10 Norway 

Sep 24 09:30 Germany 

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium 

Sep 24 15:30 Italy  

Sep 25 08:30 Holland 

Sep 25 08:30 Spain 

Sep 25 09:10 Italy  

Sep 25 14:30 UK 

Sep 25 17:00 US 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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