AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 24-28, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 22, 2012 6:44 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week down after starting at 1.0535. The Aussie ended Friday at 1.0456. The Australian dollar was buoyed by the latest wave of risk appetite and pushed above the 1.0500 level versus the greenback to hit a weekly high of 1.0517 during the European session. However, the pair lacked momentum and despite a fresh attempt early American trade, it failed to sustain gains above the psychological level.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 21, 2012	1.0456	1.0434	1.0519	1.0432	0.21%
Sep 20, 2012	1.0434	1.0470	1.0474	1.0368	-0.34%
Sep 19, 2012	1.0470	1.0452	1.0497	1.0418	0.17%
Sep 18, 2012	1.0452	1.0475	1.0487	1.0410	-0.22%
Sep 17, 2012	1.0475	1.0535	1.0547	1.0455	-0.58%

Asian markets will put Japan’s troubled economy into the spotlight and may therefore result in thank you cards coming from Europe. Economic weakness in China continues to weigh on the Aussie. China releases the final print on the private sector version of its manufacturing PMI in the wake of the continued deterioration in the preliminary ‘flash’ reading that was released this past week. Stimulus from the BoJ and the PBoC are helping to support the AUD, which depends on both countries for exports. The additional stimulus should help bump up the Aussies economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 17-21, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 17	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-10.4	-2.0	-5.8
Sep. 18	USD	Current Account	-117.4B	-125.5B	-133.6B
	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	67.0B	45.3B	9.3B
	NZD	Current Account	-1.80B	-1.64B	-1.07B
Sep. 19	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	USD	Building Permits	0.803M	0.796M	0.811M
	USD	Housing Starts	0.750M	0.765M	0.733M
	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.82M	4.55M	4.47M
	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.3%	1.0%
Sep. 20	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.47T	-0.37T	-0.37T
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	382K	375K	385K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3272K	3300K	3304K
	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	-1.9	-4.0	-7.1

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 25	15:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	62.0	60.6
	23:45	NZD	Trade Balance	-606M	15M
Sep. 27	23:45	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)		2.0%
Sep. 28	00:30	JPY	Unemployment Rate	4.3%	4.3%
	00:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.5%
	00:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.0%
	00:50	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.2%	-0.8%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 24 09:10 Norway

Sep 24 09:30 Germany

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium

Sep 24 15:30 Italy

Sep 25 08:30 Holland

Sep 25 08:30 Spain

Sep 25 09:10 Italy

Sep 25 14:30 UK

Sep 25 17:00 US

Sep 26 09:10 Italy

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden

Sep 26 09:00 Germany

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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