AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 3-7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week a bit off, as the USD was able to gain some momentum, but this week was all about the Bernanke speech at Jackson Hole. Markets prepared and positioned all week. Reinterpreting data, documents, comments and eco releases under a microscope. The Aussie kept getting hit was regional releases that were weak, mostly in housing and construction. The outcome of Mr. Bernanke’s speech was not felt in Asia as of yet and we will see the full effects on the AUD on Monday. The Aussie ended at 1.0325

Asian markets will be largely carried along in one direction or the other by the ECB and the Fed.  An exception could lead off the week with China’s state manufacturing purchasing managers’ index that is to be released this evening.  It is expected to hug the 50-line between expansion and contraction, but any surprise will clearly factor into the China-slowing debate.  Australia faces the added risk of a very active domestic calendar.  Retail sales start it off at the Monday open.  Australian consumers have had their wallets open over recent months and their resilience has been one constraint on further easing by the RBA.  Thus, this indicator will play into the RBA call on Tuesday.  Consensus is almost unanimous in anticipating a hold at a 3.5% cash target rate where the RBA has kept it since May.  No sooner will the ink be dry on the RBA’s decision than Q2 GDP lands along with the August jobs report.  The RBA would have a very advanced understanding of the GDP report when it makes its rate decision.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Tier 1 and 2 Economic Releases for August 27-31, 2012

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy